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0 comments

2026 US Midterms Tracker

5 comments
22 forecasters

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

65%chance
32.1% this week
0 comments
116 forecasters

Will the June 2026 U of MI Consumer Sentiment # be > than it was for May 2026?

48.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
115 forecasters

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range by July 30, 2026?

28%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
112 forecasters

Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental USA before September 1, 2026?

31.3%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
111 forecasters

Will Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?

31.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

13 comments
31 forecasters

US acquired NWS infection before 2027?

resultYes
20 comments
110 forecasters

Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country before Sept 2026?

97.6%chance
85.6% this week

Key Factors

  • No signals of surprise travel in summer 2026
  • Summer vacation closes July travel window
0 comments
92 forecasters

Voter Turnout in 2026 Algerian Elections?

Latest estimate
24.6%

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments
11 forecasters

Frontier AI training consume as much electricity as a city of 100,000 people in 2029?

Your forecast95%
Your forecast of Crowd Median63%
0 comments
97 forecasters

What will SpaceX's closing market capitalization be on its first day of trading as a public company?

$1.5 trillion to $2.0 trillion26.3%
$2.0 trillion to $2.5 trillion36.5%
$2.5 trillion to $3.0 trillion18.1%
More than $3.0 trillion7.9%
2 others

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
101 forecasters

Will the EIA/FRED daily Brent crude spot price reach at least $130 per barrel before September 1, 20

20.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
96 forecasters

Will Wes Streeting formally submit nominations to trigger a Labour leadership contest before Septemb

36.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

9 comments

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 Winners!

0 comments
89 forecasters

Will Russia and Ukraine sign a formal written peace or ceasefire agreement before September 10, 2026

14%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
111 forecasters

Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before September 1, 2026?

30%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
103 forecasters

What will the U.S. seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts be in July 2026?

Latest estimate
1.37 million units

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
103 forecasters

What will the U.S. seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total privately-owned housing starts be

Latest estimate
1415 thousand units

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
102 forecasters

How many vehicles will Tesla deliver in Q2 2026?

Latest estimate
404k vehicles

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
47 forecasters

Mangione guilty plea

16.2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
99 forecasters

How will the Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga fight on July 25, 2026 end?

Joshua wins by KO/TKO/stoppage in rounds 1โ€“332.4%
Joshua wins by KO/TKO/stoppage in rounds 4โ€“632.5%
Joshua wins by KO/TKO/stoppage in rounds 7โ€“1214.7%
Fight goes the distance (decision or technical decision)9.2%
Other outcome11.2%

This question is closed for forecasting.

23 comments
90 forecasters

Countries President Trump will visits before the end second term?

Australia18%
Brazil22%
Chinaresult: Yes
Cuba4%
13 others
0 comments
110 forecasters

Will Reform UK win the Makerfield parliamentary by-election on June 18, 2026?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
103 forecasters

What percentage of the vote will Reform UK receive in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election on 18

Latest estimate
41.2%

This question is closed for forecasting.