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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

7
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
11 comments
54 forecasters

Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?

99.9%chance
11.9% today
42 comments
137 forecasters

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic75.5%
Other10.1%
No Prime Minister4%
1 comment
3 forecasters

Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?

1 comment
6 forecasters

Will the U.S. federal government open formal investigations of at least 5 top-50 universities in the following years?

1 comment
5 forecasters

Will two or more U.S. state or federal judges or legislators be victims of murder or attempted murder by non-state actors in the following years?

0 comments
5 forecasters

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?

0 comments
85 forecasters

Will the August 2025 seasonally adjusted CPI-U monthly percentage change be 0.3%?

30%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
84 forecasters

Will UDR's market close price on 2025-09-12 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-05?

50.1%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?"?

44%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.