• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🏦
Big Beautiful Bill
🗽
State of the Union
⏳
AI 2027
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran66%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
and 7 others

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous
LatviaAmbiguous
LithuaniaAmbiguous
and 9 others

When will the Armenia–Turkey border reopen?

06 Feb 2026

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%
Poland30%
Estonia30%
and 9 others

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

Montenegro95%
North Macedonia85%
Albania82.5%
and 17 others

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

19 Mar 2026

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World

10
10 comments10
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?

resultNo

Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?

resultYes

Explainable AI and Trust Issues

8
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives