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When will the first babies screened by Orchid Health be born?

21 Aug 2027 (22 Apr 2024 - >01 Jan 2030)

16

23

23 forecasters

21 Aug 2027

(22 Apr 2024 - >01 Jan 2030)

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

14 Apr 2029 (10 Jan 2027 - Aug 2034)

33

120

120 forecasters

14 Apr 2029

(10 Jan 2027 - Aug 2034)

When will we see the first live birth from human in vitro gametogenesis?

Feb 2032 (10 Oct 2028 - Dec 2038)

13

47

47 forecasters

Feb 2032

(10 Oct 2028 - Dec 2038)

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

17% chance

11

11 forecasters

17%chance

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

10% chance

3

34

34 forecasters

Annulled

Will gene editing of human embryos for therapeutic purposes be officially approved by any country before 2035?

57% chance

2

13

13 forecasters

57%chance

When will epigenome editing be used in human embryos as a therapeutic approach for genetic diseases?

Oct 2034 (02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)

2

5

5 forecasters

Oct 2034

(02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)

By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?

60% chance

9

31

31 forecasters

60%chance

Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?

2

4

4 forecasters

Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?

50% chance

6

84

84 forecasters

50%chance

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

15.8% chance

9

59

59 forecasters

15.8%chance

When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?

Mar 2057 (Sep 2042 - 2080)

8

17

17 forecasters

Mar 2057

(Sep 2042 - 2080)

When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parent(s) for doing so?

Sep 2050 (Mar 2039 - Jan 2063)

11

15

15 forecasters

Sep 2050

(Mar 2039 - Jan 2063)

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

Feb 2049 (Jul 2038 - Aug 2065)

13

41

41 forecasters

Feb 2049

(Jul 2038 - Aug 2065)

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

60% chance

6

55

55 forecasters

60%chance

Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

36% chance

8

60

60 forecasters

36%chance

Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

28% chance

4

28

28 forecasters

28%chance

Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

40% chance

5

67

67 forecasters

40%chance

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

85% chance

11

92

92 forecasters

85%chance

Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

70% chance

10

40

40 forecasters

70%chance

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

17.6% chance

7

79

79 forecasters

17.6%chance

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

5% chance

4

65

65 forecasters

5%chance

By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?

51% chance

17

58

58 forecasters

51%chance

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

67% chance

52

266

266 forecasters

67%chance