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30
comments
85
forecasters
Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?
50%
chance
6%
this week
24
comments
91
forecasters
Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
82%
chance
86
comments
255
forecasters
By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?
65%
chance
2
comments
31
forecasters
By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?
60%
chance
1
comment
17
forecasters
When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?
Current estimate
Mar 2057
11
comments
61
forecasters
Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
5%
chance
38
comments
58
forecasters
By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?
55%
chance
14
comments
65
forecasters
Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
40%
chance
38
comments
118
forecasters
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
Current estimate
16 Aug 2028
25
comments
78
forecasters
Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
16%
chance
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