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When will the first babies screened by Orchid Health be born?

30 Oct 2023 02:30 (11 Jan 2023 - 13 Jul 2025)

16

23

23 forecasters

Resolved10 Oct 2023 UTC

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

56.7% chance

6

53

53 forecasters

56.7%chance

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

0.288 (0.215 - 0.376)

17

36

36 forecasters

0.288

(0.215 - 0.376)

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

65% chance

52

266

266 forecasters

65%chance

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

18 Jan 2029 (23 Jan 2027 - Apr 2033)

33

121

121 forecasters

18 Jan 2029

(23 Jan 2027 - Apr 2033)

Will gene editing of human embryos for therapeutic purposes be officially approved by any country before 2035?

80% chance

2

11

11 forecasters

80%chance

When will epigenome editing be used in human embryos as a therapeutic approach for genetic diseases?

Oct 2034 (02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)

2

5

5 forecasters

Oct 2034

(02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)

Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?

2

4

4 forecasters

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15% chance

9

9 forecasters

15%chance

Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?

50% chance

6

84

84 forecasters

50%chance

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

10% chance

9

57

57 forecasters

10%chance

When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?

Mar 2057 (Sep 2042 - 2080)

8

17

17 forecasters

Mar 2057

(Sep 2042 - 2080)

When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parent(s) for doing so?

Sep 2050 (Mar 2039 - Jan 2063)

11

15

15 forecasters

Sep 2050

(Mar 2039 - Jan 2063)

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

Feb 2050 (Feb 2039 - Jan 2067)

13

42

42 forecasters

Feb 2050

(Feb 2039 - Jan 2067)

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

10% chance

3

34

34 forecasters

Annulled

Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

33% chance

8

59

59 forecasters

33%chance

Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

28% chance

4

27

27 forecasters

28%chance

Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

40% chance

5

66

66 forecasters

40%chance

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

85% chance

11

91

91 forecasters

85%chance

Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

71% chance

10

39

39 forecasters

71%chance

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

16% chance

7

78

78 forecasters

16%chance

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

4% chance

4

65

65 forecasters

4%chance