Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?3% chance41313 comments6666 forecasters3%chance
By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?67% chance528686 comments268268 forecasters67%chance
When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?Nov 2032 (28 Mar 2029 - Aug 2037)111313 comments3636 forecastersNov 2032 (28 Mar 2029 - Aug 2037)
When will the first babies screened by Orchid Health be born?30 Oct 2023 02:30 (11 Jan 2023 - 13 Jul 2025)162121 comments2323 forecastersResolved10 Oct 2023 UTC
Will gene editing of human embryos for therapeutic purposes be officially approved by any country before 2035?66.7% chance222 comments1313 forecasters66.7%chance
When will epigenome editing be used in human embryos as a therapeutic approach for genetic diseases?Oct 2034 (11 Mar 2031 - Jun 2038)211 comment55 forecastersOct 2034 (11 Mar 2031 - Jun 2038)
Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?20 comments44 forecasters
Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?15% chance33 comments99 forecasters15%chance
When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?Apr 2034 (17 Jun 2029 - Mar 2039)191616 comments7373 forecastersApr 2034 (17 Jun 2029 - Mar 2039)
Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?50% chance63030 comments8484 forecasters50%chance
Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?10% chance91414 comments5858 forecasters10%chance
When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?Apr 2057 (Oct 2042 - 2080)811 comment1717 forecastersApr 2057 (Oct 2042 - 2080)
When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parent(s) for doing so?Sep 2050 (Mar 2039 - Jan 2063)112525 comments1515 forecastersSep 2050 (Mar 2039 - Jan 2063)
When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?Jul 2050 (Oct 2038 - Jun 2068)132626 comments4242 forecastersJul 2050 (Oct 2038 - Jun 2068)
Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?10% chance333 comments3434 forecastersAnnulled
Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?56.7% chance61010 comments5353 forecasters56.7%chance
Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?33% chance899 comments6060 forecasters33%chance
Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?28% chance433 comments2727 forecasters28%chance
Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?40% chance51414 comments6666 forecasters40%chance
Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?85% chance112424 comments9191 forecasters85%chance
Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?75% chance1033 comments3939 forecasters75%chance
Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?14% chance72525 comments7878 forecasters14%chance