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When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Key Factor

Political stability

10 Jul 2026

Key Factor

Political stability

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?

resultNo

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

1%chance

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?

resultNo

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?

resultNo

Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?

resultNo

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

5%chance

Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?

resultYes

Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 20th, 2023?

Ambiguous

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?

resultNo