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When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

08 Mar 2029

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.34
years

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jan 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?

65%chance
condition

3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?

13 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

05 Jun 2030

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

20 Sep 2028
7
no comments0

Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

60%chance

Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?

Annulled

When will the Loebner Prize award a silver medal for an AI that passes the Turing test?

Ambiguous

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

85%chance

When will an AI pass the laugh test?

02 Dec 2025