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Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
80%
511 forecasters
70
108 comments
108
AGI Outcomes
Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?
Closed
792 forecasters
192
58 comments
58
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
2028-12-04
172 forecasters
43
70 comments
70
AGI Outcomes
Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?
Resolved :
Annulled
162 forecasters
18
42 comments
42
Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2027-10-31
1522 forecasters
201
477 comments
477
AI Progress Essay Contest
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?
1.37
41 forecasters
6
7 comments
7
AGI Outcomes
Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?
Resolved :
No
177 forecasters
48
10 comments
10
When will an AI pass the laugh test?
2025-10-08
94 forecasters
10
9 comments
9
AI Demonstrations
When will the Loebner Prize award a silver medal for an AI that passes the Turing test?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
5 forecasters
2
5 comments
5
Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?
11
14 comments
14
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