Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

43

210 210 comments

298

298 forecasters

CTs Deep Learning Revenue → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2

22

22 forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

11 Sep 2027 (11 Sep 2026 - 14 Feb 2030)

224

669 669 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

11 Sep 2027

(11 Sep 2026 - 14 Feb 2030)

Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?

50% chance

12

12 forecasters

50%chance

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

10

10 forecasters

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

95% chance

39

252

252 forecasters

95%chance

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

28 Nov 2027 (03 Aug 2026 - 27 Nov 2030)

96

645

645 forecasters

28 Nov 2027

(03 Aug 2026 - 27 Nov 2030)

Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?

75% chance

2

50

50 forecasters

75%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

18 Apr 2031 (03 May 2028 - Nov 2037)

220

668 668 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

18 Apr 2031

(03 May 2028 - Nov 2037)

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

85% chance

1

130

130 forecasters

85%chance

When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?

16 Feb 2028 (12 May 2027 - 27 Jul 2029)

-1

15

15 forecasters

16 Feb 2028

(12 May 2027 - 27 Jul 2029)

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

87% chance

6

67

67 forecasters

87%chance

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

107

107 forecasters

Will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals before 2100?

3% chance

2

85

85 forecasters

3%chance

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

86% chance

59

59 forecasters

86%chance

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

14

38

38 forecasters

When will any national government, international organization, or supranational body formally acknowledge the moral patienthood of an AI system?

17 Jun 2030 (20 Aug 2028 - >01 Jan 2031)

8

8 forecasters

17 Jun 2030

(20 Aug 2028 - >01 Jan 2031)

What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026?

4

143

143 forecasters

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

33% chance

6

84

84 forecasters

33%chance

Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?

4

101

101 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

40% chance

38

475

475 forecasters

40%chance

When will the first company with a market cap above the given figures be openly run by an AI CEO?

4

27

27 forecasters