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What will be the highest score achieved by any model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on December 31, 2026?

63 Index Score (61 - 66)

67

67 forecasters

63 Index Score

(61 - 66)

Will Generative AI become part of most Americans' daily lives before 2030?

98% chance

1

51

51 forecasters

98%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

17 Aug 2030 (29 Feb 2028 - May 2036)

221

675 675 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

17 Aug 2030

(29 Feb 2028 - May 2036)

Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?

49% chance

1

10

10 forecasters

49%chance

What will be the total disclosed VC funding levels globally invested in AI startups during 2029?

384B $ (148B - 593B)

10

10 forecasters

384B $

(148B - 593B)

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

60% chance

30

30 forecasters

60%chance

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

29 Aug 2027 (20 Sep 2026 - 19 Oct 2029)

224

684 684 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

29 Aug 2027

(20 Sep 2026 - 19 Oct 2029)

How many of the 25 largest global companies will have a C-suite officer that specializes in AI, as of January 1, 2030?

14 companies (5 - 21)

13

13 forecasters

14 companies

(5 - 21)

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

33% chance

7

87

87 forecasters

33%chance

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

45

222 222 comments

335

335 forecasters

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

121

121 forecasters

What percentage of business leaders will describe their deployment of AI as "mature" in 2029?

50% (26 - 82)

1

12

12 forecasters

50%

(26 - 82)

Will AI Daily's "AI Support" among American adults turn negative before 2027?

25% chance

16

16 forecasters

25%chance

Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?

70% chance

1

13

13 forecasters

70%chance

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

14 Nov 2027 (18 Aug 2026 - 15 Jul 2030)

96

649

649 forecasters

14 Nov 2027

(18 Aug 2026 - 15 Jul 2030)

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

3

3 forecasters

Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?

26% chance

4

96

96 forecasters

26%chance

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

90% chance

1

137

137 forecasters

90%chance

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

58

58 forecasters

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

97% chance

39

257

257 forecasters

97%chance

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

90% chance

27

156

156 forecasters

90%chance

Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?

60% chance

2

61

61 forecasters

60%chance