When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111717 comments1717 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?15 Oct 2028 (22 Jan 2027 - Aug 2032)224624624 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters15 Oct 2028 (22 Jan 2027 - Aug 2032)
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?1% chance21111 comments8282 forecasters1%chance
Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?93% chance566 comments4949 forecasters93%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments5858 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?99% chance241414 comments145145 forecasters99%chance
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?83% chance644 comments6161 forecasters83%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments332332 forecasters30%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5858 forecasters
What will be the total disclosed VC funding levels globally invested in AI startups during 2029?363B $ (218B - 547B)0 comments77 forecasters363B $ (218B - 547B)
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
How many of the 25 largest global companies will have a C-suite officer that specializes in AI, as of January 1, 2030?15 companies (7 - 21)0 comments1010 forecasters15 companies (7 - 21)
When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?19 Jun 2027 (11 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2028)21111 comments1818 forecasters19 Jun 2027 (11 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2028)
Will AI Daily's "AI Support" among American adults turn negative before 2027?35% chance33 comments1111 forecasters35%chance
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5353 forecasters
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?34.7 months (9.34 - 151)415151 comments348348 forecasters34.7 months (9.34 - 151)
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4444 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4242 forecasters
What percentage of firms will report difficulties hiring for AI-related roles in 2029?39% (27 - 52)0 comments77 forecasters39% (27 - 52)
When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?29 Apr 2029 (18 Nov 2027 - Mar 2034)-211 comment1010 forecasters29 Apr 2029 (18 Nov 2027 - Mar 2034)
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?81515 comments3838 forecasters