What will be the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?105105 comments109109 forecasters
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?10 comments1818 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?23 Jun 2028 (11 Nov 2026 - Mar 2032)223617617 comments1.7k1.7k forecasters23 Jun 2028 (11 Nov 2026 - Mar 2032)
Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?70% chance133 comments99 forecasters70%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?722 comments5454 forecasters
Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?6% chance11010 comments1111 forecasters6%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026?41919 comments143143 forecasters
When will the first AI model exceed 130 IQ for a test not in the training data set?30 Aug 2026 (26 May 2026 - 20 Dec 2026)1111 comments1212 forecasters30 Aug 2026 (26 May 2026 - 20 Dec 2026)
Will an AI created song chart on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?61.6% chance-122 comments3434 forecasters61.6%chance
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?98% chance41414 comments185185 forecasters98%chance
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?85% chance544 comments5959 forecasters85%chance
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?90% chance422 comments7070 forecasters90%chance
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5151 forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?Feb 2033 (20 Mar 2029 - Jun 2041)218654654 comments1.9k1.9k forecastersFeb 2033 (20 Mar 2029 - Jun 2041)
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?81515 comments3838 forecasters
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111515 comments1717 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4141 forecasters
Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024?152323 comments5858 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo