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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
3 comments
56 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet29.7%
OpenAI25.8%
Anthropic17.3%
7 comments
123 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

0 or 144.2%
2 or 340.8%
4 or 511.3%
2 comments
117 forecasters

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

17%chance
21% this week
629 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Sep 2033

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

1 comment
9 forecasters

What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
82.6%
2 comments
56 forecasters

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

85%chance
15 comments
16 forecasters

When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?

00
563 comments
1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
22 Sep 2027
0 comments
31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

3 comments
12 forecasters

What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
75%