Will Generative AI become part of most Americans' daily lives before 2030?97% chance1616 comments4545 forecasters97%chance
What will be the highest score achieved by any model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on December 31, 2026?11 comment4040 forecasters
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?60% chance55 comments3030 forecasters60%chance
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?70% chance111 comment1212 forecasters70%chance
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?07 Nov 2027 (12 Aug 2026 - 04 Jul 2030)968181 comments649649 forecasters07 Nov 2027 (12 Aug 2026 - 04 Jul 2030)
When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?17 Jun 2030 (30 Jun 2027 - Jul 2033)388 comments1212 forecasters17 Jun 2030 (30 Jun 2027 - Jul 2033)
Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?11111 comments120120 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45222222 comments332332 forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?28 Sep 2030 (24 Mar 2028 - Jul 2036)221671671 comments1.9k1.9k forecasters28 Sep 2030 (24 Mar 2028 - Jul 2036)
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?60% chance22222 comments5959 forecasters60%chance
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?90% chance272828 comments156156 forecasters90%chance
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?97% chance396666 comments257257 forecasters97%chance
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4343 forecasters
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?26.1 months (7.57 - 108)425252 comments358358 forecasters26.1 months (7.57 - 108)
Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?50% chance22 comments1414 forecasters50%chance
Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?98% chance111 comment2222 forecasters98%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments6060 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4545 forecasters
Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?9% chance333 comments9494 forecasters9%chance
Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?3% chance1099 comments8585 forecasters3%chance
What will the percent of US workers that use AI daily be in the following years?12727 comments5959 forecasters