Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
3
comments
56
forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet
29.7%
OpenAI
25.8%
Anthropic
17.3%
3 others
27%
7
comments
123
forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 1
44.2%
2 or 3
40.8%
4 or 5
11.3%
3 others
4%
2
comments
117
forecasters
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
17%
chance
21%
this week
629
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Sep 2033
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
1
comment
9
forecasters
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
82.6%
2
comments
56
forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?
85%
chance
15
comments
16
forecasters
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?
00
563
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
22 Sep 2027
0
comments
31
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
29%
Google Cloud
14.2%
Microsoft Azure
14%
1 other
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
3
comments
12
forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
75%
Load More