Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?70% chance22 comments1010 forecasters70%chance
What will the percent of US workers that use AI daily be in the following years?12020 comments4141 forecasters
Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?3% chance188 comments7272 forecasters3%chance
Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?24.9% chance34040 comments924924 forecasters24.9%chance
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?30 Jan 2031 (09 Jul 2028 - Dec 2035)113939 comments114114 forecasters30 Jan 2031 (09 Jul 2028 - Dec 2035)
Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?11212 comments2323 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?41173173 comments281281 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?24 Sep 2028 (25 Jan 2027 - Jul 2032)224628628 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters24 Sep 2028 (25 Jan 2027 - Jul 2032)
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?47% chance39101101 comments470470 forecasters47%chance
Which lab will have the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?0 comments129129 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?30% chance384444 comments471471 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance252323 comments333333 forecasters30%chance
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?37.9 months (10.4 - 163)425151 comments348348 forecasters37.9 months (10.4 - 163)
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?98% chance51616 comments212212 forecasters98%chance
How many of the 25 largest global companies will have a C-suite officer that specializes in AI, as of January 1, 2030?13 companies (8 - 19)55 comments1111 forecasters13 companies (8 - 19)
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?Apr 2033 (29 Jun 2029 - Dec 2040)220653653 comments1.9k1.9k forecastersApr 2033 (29 Jun 2029 - Dec 2040)
Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?1% chance253131 comments218218 forecasters1%chance
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?85% chance262626 comments150150 forecasters85%chance
When will the FDA approve a medical device with software that is wholly AI-generated, with no human involvement?2035 (2031 - 2038)0 comments1111 forecasters2035 (2031 - 2038)
Will AI Daily's "AI Support" among American adults turn negative before 2027?40% chance33 comments1313 forecasters40%chance
Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?31818 comments9898 forecasters