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What will be the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?

105 105 comments

109

109 forecasters

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

20

20 forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

23 Jun 2028 (11 Nov 2026 - Mar 2032)

223

617 617 comments

1.7k

1.7k forecasters

23 Jun 2028

(11 Nov 2026 - Mar 2032)

Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?

70% chance

1

9

9 forecasters

70%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

7

54

54 forecasters

Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?

6% chance

1

11

11 forecasters

6%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

56

56 forecasters

What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026?

4

143

143 forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Feb 2033 (28 Mar 2029 - Jun 2041)

219

654 654 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

Feb 2033

(28 Mar 2029 - Jun 2041)

What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

93.3 (89.3 - 96.6)

5

737

737 forecasters

93.3

(89.3 - 96.6)

When will the first AI model exceed 130 IQ for a test not in the training data set?

30 Aug 2026 (26 May 2026 - 20 Dec 2026)

12

12 forecasters

30 Aug 2026

(26 May 2026 - 20 Dec 2026)

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

85% chance

5

59

59 forecasters

85%chance

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

104

104 forecasters

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

90% chance

4

70

70 forecasters

90%chance

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

7

51

51 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25% chance

37

468

468 forecasters

25%chance

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

8

38

38 forecasters

When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?

11

17

17 forecasters

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

98% chance

4

187

187 forecasters

98%chance

Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

10

39

39 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

40

172 172 comments

275

275 forecasters

When will we have transformative AI?

Sep 2038 (16 Apr 2030 - Apr 2059)

26

174

174 forecasters

Sep 2038

(16 Apr 2030 - Apr 2059)

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

47% chance

38

101 101 comments

467

467 forecasters

47%chance

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

1% chance

24

219

219 forecasters

1%chance