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Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

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AI Pathways Tournament

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

20%chance

30% this week

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?

40%chance

23% this week

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

17.4%chance

15.6% this week

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

9%chance

3% this week

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Dec 2032

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH20%

Amazon Web Services15%

Google Cloud15%

and 1 other

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services8%

Microsoft Azure7%

and 1 other

condition

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100