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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

07 Sep 2027 (09 Sep 2026 05:00 - 11 Apr 2030)

223

664 664 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

07 Sep 2027

(09 Sep 2026 05:00 - 11 Apr 2030)

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

12 Jul 2031 (27 Jun 2028 - Mar 2038)

220

666 666 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

12 Jul 2031

(27 Jun 2028 - Mar 2038)

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

7

94

94 forecasters

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

30 months (8.94 - 126)

42

352

352 forecasters

30 months

(8.94 - 126)

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

2.32 years (-3.25 - 13.8)

14

70

70 forecasters

2.32 years

(-3.25 - 13.8)

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

4.99 score (3.96 - 5.72)

2

48

48 forecasters

4.99 score

(3.96 - 5.72)

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

88% chance

14

128

128 forecasters

88%chance

If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?

82% chance

5

55

55 forecasters

82%chance

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

95% chance

42

281

281 forecasters

95%chance