Question Feed | Metaculus

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

22 Sep 2028 (09 Jan 2027 - Jun 2032)

223

623

1.8k

22 Sep 2028

(09 Jan 2027 - Jun 2032)

Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?

25% chance

184

25%chance

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

1% chance

218

1%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Nov 2032 (20 Apr 2029 - Apr 2040)

219

654

1.9k

Nov 2032

(20 Apr 2029 - Apr 2040)

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

34.7 months (9.34 - 151)

348

34.7 months

(9.34 - 151)

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

95% chance

280

95%chance

Will mind uploading happen before AGI?

0.5% chance

0.5%chance

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

11% chance

11%chance

If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?

82% chance

82%chance

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

Will mind uploading happen before AGI?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?

Phase transitions and AGI

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

Will mind uploading happen before AGI?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?

Phase transitions and AGI