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What will the Japan Economy Watchers Current Index be in the August release?

130

130 forecasters

Will the United States provide written notices of withdrawal from the USMCA before September 2026?

4% chance

3

73

73 forecasters

4%chance

What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on July 14, 2026?

38.7% (36.6 - 40.5)

124

124 forecasters

38.7%

(36.6 - 40.5)

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?

5% chance

1

12

12 forecasters

5%chance

Will the S&P 500 close at or above 8,000 on December 31, 2026?

60% chance

1

15

15 forecasters

60%chance

What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

3.23 pp (2.8 - 4.18)

104 104 comments

110

110 forecasters

Resolved2.83 pp

What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

4.51 pp (4.33 - 4.7)

103 103 comments

107

107 forecasters

Resolved4.4 pp

Will the SEC adopt a final rule permitting optional semiannual reporting before January 1, 2027?

2

2 forecasters

%chance

Will the U.S. Senate take a floor vote on the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) before June 29, 2026?

result: no

98

98 forecasters

ResolvedNo

How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in July 2026?

2

2 forecasters

Will a Tucker Carlson-founded political party file FEC Form 1 before September 2026?

3

3 forecasters

%chance

Will the FAO Food Price Index reach a new yearly high for July 2026?

5

5 forecasters

%chance

Which team will win the 2026 MLB World Series?

42

42 forecasters

What will the 10-year U.S. Treasury constant maturity yield be on June 25, 2026?

4.46 value (4.34 - 4.6)

88

88 forecasters

Resolved4.4 value

Will the Bank of England raise Bank Rate before August 1, 2026?

17% chance

112

112 forecasters

17%chance

Will any U.S. Supreme Court justice announce their retirement before September 1, 2026?

8

8 forecasters

%chance

What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026?

59

59 forecasters

What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years?

6

28

28 forecasters

The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is Live!

8

What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on July 14, 2026?

39.3% (38.5 - 40.1)

2

14

14 forecasters

39.3%

(38.5 - 40.1)

Market Pulse Challenge 26Q2: Can You Beat the Market and the Crowd?

7

Will OpenAI publicly file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 1, 2026?

41% chance

1

15

15 forecasters

41%chance