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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jun 2033
4.3 years this week

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

19 Apr 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama32.1%
AI-Dystopia25.7%
Singularia16.6%
and 2 others

Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?

resultNo

When will we have transformative AI?

Nov 2039

Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?

12
13 comments13