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Artificial Intelligence
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630
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Key Factors
AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it)
Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index
5
6
6
comments
62
comments
164
forecasters
When will we have transformative AI?
Current estimate
Feb 2044
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved:
Yes
6
forecasters
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
19 Apr 2026
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
23 Nov 2025
Resolved:
Annulled
4
0
comments
6
6
forecasters
9
comments
79
forecasters
How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?
Latest estimate
7121
This question is closed for forecasting.