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559 comments
1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
27 May 2027
622 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Aug 2033

Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

5
33 comments

Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?

12
1313 comments
62 comments
162 forecasters

When will we have transformative AI?

Current estimate
Dec 2040
9 comments
79 forecasters

How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?

Latest estimate
7121

This question is closed for forecasting.

Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan

11
0 comments
Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament