632 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
Key Factors
568 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
19 Nov 2027
Key Factors
24 comments
93 forecasters
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
10 comments
16 forecasters
When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?
Current estimate
20 Nov 2028
