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630 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Jul 2033

Key Factors

Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

5
66 comments
62 comments
164 forecasters

When will we have transformative AI?

Current estimate
Feb 2044
condition

Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Resolved:Yes
6 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

19 Apr 2026

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

23 Nov 2025
Resolved:Annulled
4
0 comments
6
6 forecasters
9 comments
79 forecasters

How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?

Latest estimate
7121

This question is closed for forecasting.