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559
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
27 May 2027
622
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index
5
3
3
comments
Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?
12
13
13
comments
62
comments
162
forecasters
When will we have transformative AI?
Current estimate
Dec 2040
9
comments
79
forecasters
How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?
Latest estimate
7121
This question is closed for forecasting.
Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan
11
0
comments
Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament