Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45221221 comments325325 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?29 Aug 2027 (08 Sep 2026 - 21 Dec 2029)224670670 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters29 Aug 2027 (08 Sep 2026 - 21 Dec 2029)
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?29 Mar 2031 (04 Oct 2028 - Aug 2035)113939 comments115115 forecasters29 Mar 2031 (04 Oct 2028 - Aug 2035)
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?1699 comments8181 forecasters
When will gross world product exceed every previous year by 30% due to AI?Sep 2042 (26 Sep 2031 - 2084)266565 comments178178 forecastersSep 2042 (26 Sep 2031 - 2084)
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?18 Jun 2029 (22 Jun 2027 - Apr 2033)467171 comments179179 forecasters18 Jun 2029 (22 Jun 2027 - Apr 2033)