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When will a country-wide autonomous taxi service operate in Sweden?

Jul 2032 (21 Feb 2030 - Jan 2035)

6

6 forecasters

Jul 2032

(21 Feb 2030 - Jan 2035)

When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?

25 Jul 2028 (05 Jun 2027 - Aug 2035)

-2

13

13 forecasters

25 Jul 2028

(05 Jun 2027 - Aug 2035)

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

7

16

16 forecasters

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

10

107 107 comments

204

204 forecasters

Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?

56% chance

2

27

27 forecasters

56%chance

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

Jan 2069 (Jun 2051 - 2094)

15

54

54 forecasters

Jan 2069

(Jun 2051 - 2094)

When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?

Oct 2019 (Mar 2019 - 01 Sep 2020)

20

161

161 forecasters

Resolved19 Jan 2025 17:00 UTC

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.95 states (4.01 - 6.68)

9

42

42 forecasters

Resolved4 states

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

result: no

6

42

42 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?

result: no

87

198

198 forecasters

ResolvedNo

When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?

11 Sep 2029 (18 Feb 2027 - Jan 2035)

14

81

81 forecasters

11 Sep 2029

(18 Feb 2027 - Jan 2035)

What distance will be travelled by passengers in California’s driverless taxis in these months?

3

3 forecasters

Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?

result: yes

15

15 forecasters

ResolvedYes

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

11

125 125 comments

219

219 forecasters

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

1

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

4

65

65 forecasters

On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?

result: no

30

30 forecasters

ResolvedNo

On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

result: no

30

30 forecasters

ResolvedNo

When will an autonomous car defeat human-driven cars in an official Formula 1 race?

Jul 2039 (Sep 2035 - Apr 2042)

-1

11

11 forecasters

Jul 2039

(Sep 2035 - Apr 2042)

Will driverless cars — in which no human is required to attend to traffic — continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities?

%chance

Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?

result: no

18

126

126 forecasters

ResolvedNo

How many self-driving cars will be sold globally in the years 2025-2030?

2.7M (1.34M - 4.46M)

1

1 forecaster

2.7M

(1.34M - 4.46M)