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5
comments
3
forecasters
When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?
Current estimate
21 Jan 2027
22
comments
28
forecasters
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
85%
chance
5
comments
15
forecasters
Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?
50%
chance
14
comments
40
forecasters
On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?
0.1%
chance
15
comments
39
forecasters
On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?
Current estimate
4.22 states
105
comments
198
forecasters
When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
00
124
comments
217
forecasters
When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?
5
comments
58
forecasters
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?
Gary Marcus win
89.2%
Nathan Young win
8.8%
Other
2%
Key Factors
The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner
0
comments
1
forecaster
What distance will be travelled by passengers in California’s driverless taxis in these months?
65
comments
30
forecasters
On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?
result
No
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