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6
comments
58
forecasters
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?
Gary Marcus win
85%
Nathan Young win
13%
Other
2%
Key Factors
The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner
105
comments
198
forecasters
When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
00
15
comments
39
forecasters
On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?
Current estimate
4.22 states
5
comments
15
forecasters
Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?
50%
chance
14
comments
40
forecasters
On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?
0.1%
chance
65
comments
30
forecasters
On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?
result
No
2
comments
11
forecasters
When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?
community
15 Jun 2025
result
12 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
7
comments
77
forecasters
When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?
Current estimate
27 Jan 2029
65
comments
30
forecasters
On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?
result
No
11
comments
122
forecasters
Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?
result
No
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