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6 comments
58 forecasters

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win85%
Nathan Young win13%
Other2%

Key Factors

105 comments
198 forecasters

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

00
15 comments
39 forecasters

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Current estimate
4.22 states
5 comments
15 forecasters

Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?

50%chance
14 comments
40 forecasters

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

0.1%chance
65 comments
30 forecasters

On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

resultNo
2 comments
11 forecasters

When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?

community
15 Jun 2025
result
12 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
7 comments
77 forecasters

When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?

Current estimate
27 Jan 2029
65 comments
30 forecasters

On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?

resultNo
11 comments
122 forecasters

Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?

resultNo