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5 comments
3 forecasters

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

Current estimate
21 Jan 2027
22 comments
28 forecasters

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

85%chance
5 comments
15 forecasters

Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?

50%chance
14 comments
40 forecasters

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

0.1%chance
15 comments
39 forecasters

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Current estimate
4.22 states
105 comments
198 forecasters

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

00
124 comments
217 forecasters

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

5 comments
58 forecasters

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win89.2%
Nathan Young win8.8%
Other2%

Key Factors

0 comments
1 forecaster

What distance will be travelled by passengers in California’s driverless taxis in these months?

65 comments
30 forecasters

On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

resultNo