Will Tesla obtain a California DMV driverless-testing or deployment permit before September 1, 2026?7.6% chance0 comments111111 forecasters7.6%chance
Will Waymo have a service area of 1,200 square miles before July 1, 2026?45% chance1010 comments2424 forecasters45%chance
Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?65% chance866 comments4545 forecasters65%chance
When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?11 Jun 2029 (21 Nov 2026 - Jan 2036)1477 comments8080 forecasters11 Jun 2029 (21 Nov 2026 - Jan 2036)
When will a country-wide autonomous taxi service operate in Sweden?Dec 2033 (Jan 2032 - Mar 2036)11 comment55 forecastersDec 2033 (Jan 2032 - Mar 2036)
On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?result: no61515 comments4242 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?result: no91111 comments122122 forecastersResolvedNo
On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States? result: no6565 comments3030 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?36.4% chance255 comments2929 forecasters36.4%chance
On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?4.95 states (4.01 - 6.68)91616 comments4242 forecasters4.95 states (4.01 - 6.68)
When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?02 Feb 2027 (29 Sep 2026 - 03 Aug 2027)255 comments44 forecasters02 Feb 2027 (29 Sep 2026 - 03 Aug 2027)
Will Tesla offer a self-driving capability on both highways and side streets by the end of 2020, with driver supervision required?30% chance126060 comments9696 forecastersAmbiguous
On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?result: no101101 comments103103 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?result: no222828 comments127127 forecastersResolvedNo
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?488 comments6464 forecasters
Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?result: yes1515 comments1515 forecastersResolvedYes
When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?Jan 2032 (28 Jan 2028 - Dec 2037)183939 comments105105 forecastersJan 2032 (28 Jan 2028 - Dec 2037)
Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?result: no674747 comments336336 forecastersResolvedNo
When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?72323 comments1515 forecasters