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5
comments
3
forecasters
When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?
Current estimate
13 Apr 2026
103
comments
198
forecasters
When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
00
5
comments
58
forecasters
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?
Gary Marcus win
87.4%
Nathan Young win
10.5%
Other
2.1%
15
comments
62
forecasters
On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?
Current estimate
4.36 states
14
comments
65
forecasters
On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?
0.1%
chance
7
comments
76
forecasters
When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?
Current estimate
08 Apr 2029
21
comments
30
forecasters
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
86.6%
chance
8
comments
36
forecasters
What will be the share of global light vehicles sold which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years?
65
comments
30
forecasters
On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?
result
No
15
comments
15
forecasters
Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?
result
Yes
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