Will Waymo achieve 1 million weekly autonomous rides before 2027?38% chance211 comment1818 forecasters38%chance
Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?65% chance966 comments4747 forecasters65%chance
What distance will be travelled by passengers in California’s driverless taxis in these months?11 comment33 forecasters
When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?06 Feb 2028 (07 May 2027 - 21 Jul 2029)-122 comments1515 forecasters06 Feb 2028 (07 May 2027 - 21 Jul 2029)
On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?4.95 states (4.01 - 6.68)91616 comments4242 forecastersResolved4 states
When will a country-wide autonomous taxi service operate in Sweden?Jul 2032 (21 Feb 2030 - Jan 2035)11 comment66 forecastersJul 2032 (21 Feb 2030 - Jan 2035)
On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?result: no61515 comments4242 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?result: no91111 comments122122 forecastersResolvedNo
When will the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle be sold in the United States?Aug 2038 (24 Jul 2031 - Oct 2052)255 comments1515 forecastersAug 2038 (24 Jul 2031 - Oct 2052)
When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?16 Dec 2029 (24 Jun 2027 - Nov 2034)1477 comments8181 forecasters16 Dec 2029 (24 Jun 2027 - Nov 2034)
When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?Jan 2032 (27 Apr 2028 - Jun 2038)183939 comments105105 forecastersJan 2032 (27 Apr 2028 - Jun 2038)
When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?Oct 2019 (Mar 2019 - 01 Sep 2020)201616 comments161161 forecastersResolved19 Jan 2025 17:00 UTC
Will Tesla offer a self-driving capability on both highways and side streets by the end of 2020, with driver supervision required?30% chance126060 comments9696 forecastersAmbiguous
When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?72323 comments1616 forecasters
Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?50% chance255 comments2828 forecasters50%chance
Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?result: yes1515 comments1515 forecastersResolvedYes
When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?10 comments
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?488 comments6565 forecasters
On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?result: no6565 comments3030 forecastersResolvedNo