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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

6
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7%
7%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
2 comments
67 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

31%chance
9% this week
condition

Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?

Resolved:No
17 forecasters
if yes
if no

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

124
Resolved:Annulled

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

144
1313 comments
17
17 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
36 comments
182 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

1%chance
1% this week
condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters
if yes
if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.61

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.942
1010 comments
21
21 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
4 comments
15 forecasters

How many deaths from Tuberculosis will occur globally in the following years?

14 comments
34 forecasters

How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?

community
159
result
141
1 comment
5 forecasters

How many Tuberculosis cases (per 100k people) will occur globally in the following years?

19 comments
71 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

1%chance