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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season
6
0
comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
condition
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
24
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
7%
7%
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
0%
0%
7
7
comments
24
24
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
2
comments
67
forecasters
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?
31%
chance
9%
this week
condition
Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?
Resolved:
No
17
forecasters
if yes
if no
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
124
Resolved:
Annulled
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
144
13
13
comments
17
17
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
36
comments
182
forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
1%
chance
1%
this week
condition
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
21
forecasters
if yes
if no
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.61
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.942
10
10
comments
21
21
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
4
comments
15
forecasters
How many deaths from Tuberculosis will occur globally in the following years?
14
comments
34
forecasters
How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?
community
159
result
141
1
comment
5
forecasters
How many Tuberculosis cases (per 100k people) will occur globally in the following years?
19
comments
71
forecasters
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1%
chance
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