Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

❓

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

1.5%chance

1.3% this week

4 comments

13 forecasters

How many deaths from Tuberculosis will occur globally in the following years?

condition

Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

124

Resolved:Annulled

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

144

13 13 comments

17 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

1 comment

5 forecasters

How many Tuberculosis cases (per 100k people) will occur globally in the following years?

2 comments

55 forecasters

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

63%chance

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.646

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.957

10 10 comments

21 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 7 comments

24 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

4 comments

21 forecasters

Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?

61.8%chance

36 comments

206 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

5%chance

2 comments

27 forecasters

How many deaths in the US will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in 2035?

Current estimate

75.9k deaths