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condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%
13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
12 comments
51 forecasters

How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

community
848k
result
231k
0 comments
28 forecasters

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

27%chance
27 comments
225 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

22.8%chance
4 comments
42 forecasters

How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

community
8967
result
Ambiguous
2 comments
161 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

8%chance
1 comment
76 forecasters

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?

resultNo
6 comments
52 forecasters

Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?

resultNo
4 comments
83 forecasters

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

resultNo
3 comments
9 forecasters

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

33%chance