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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

6
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%
13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters
if yes
if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.609

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.942
1010 comments
21
21 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
2 comments
161 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

8%chance
16 comments
122 forecasters

Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?

resultNo
31 comments
18 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season?

00
27 comments
225 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

22.8%chance
5 comments
152 forecasters

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Orthomyxoviridae58%
Other 24 known HIVF25%
Coronaviridae15%

This question is closed for forecasting.

4 comments
83 forecasters

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

resultNo

Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2025/26

0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26