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US Democracy Index

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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

22.8%chance

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 7 comments

24 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

4 comments

83 forecasters

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

resultNo

12 comments

112 forecasters

Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?

resultNo

4 comments

21 forecasters

Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?

61.8%chance

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.609

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.942

10 10 comments

21 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

5 comments

152 forecasters

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Orthomyxoviridae58%

Other 24 known HIVF25%

Coronaviridae15%

This question is closed for forecasting.

Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2025/26

0 comments

Respiratory Outlook 2025/26

46 comments

238 forecasters

Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

76 forecasters

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?

resultNo