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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

6
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7%
7%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters
if yes
if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.61

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.942
1010 comments
21
21 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
4 comments
21 forecasters

Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?

61.8%chance
2 comments
4 forecasters

When will these diseases be eradicated according to the WHO?

00

Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2025/26

0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
20 comments
161 forecasters

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

24%chance
9 comments
54 forecasters

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

3%chance
2 comments
161 forecasters

RagnarΓΆk Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

8%chance
4 comments
83 forecasters

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

resultNo