Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?57% chance855 comments2525 forecasters57%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?10% chance199 comments6060 forecasters10%chance
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35252 comments205205 forecasters1%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.7% chance51818 comments104104 forecasters0.7%chance
How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?40 cases (31 - 51)1111 comments1515 forecasters40 cases (31 - 51)
Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?result: yes274141 comments143143 forecastersResolvedYes
Will WHO publish at least one new Disease Outbreak News item about cholera or acute watery diarrhoea before April 30, 2026?result: no120120 comments121121 forecastersResolvedNo
Will CDC report at least one newly identified human infection with a novel influenza A virus in the United States before May 1, 2026?result: no121121 comments122122 forecastersResolvedNo
Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?2121 comments1919 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?104k (80.3k - 160k)377979 comments218218 forecasters104k (80.3k - 160k)
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
Will WHO Disease Outbreak News publish a new mpox-related item before May 1, 2026?result: no108108 comments109109 forecastersResolvedNo
Will CDC’s official U.S. human A(H5N1) case tally increase by at least one before April 30, 2026?result: no126126 comments124124 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?848k (376k - 2.15M)51212 comments5151 forecasters848k (376k - 2.15M)
Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?result: no499 comments3939 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?result: no5555 comments3232 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?result: yes324545 comments229229 forecastersResolvedYes
What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?4404 (4010 - 4865)177 comments2424 forecasters4404 (4010 - 4865)
What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?3437 (3302 - 3612)666 comments3232 forecasters3437 (3302 - 3612)