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US Democracy Index

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Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

15%chance

12 comments

215 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Current estimate

56.2M birds

10 comments

17 forecasters

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

RSV3.48

Flu9.78

COVID-194.09

15 comments

17 forecasters

What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2025-26 season among the following groups in the US?

Adults 65+43.1

Adults 18+21.4

Children 6 months to 17 years11.8

13 comments

18 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

10 comments

18 forecasters

What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2025-26 season through the end of April 2026?

Current estimate

82%

6 comments

32 forecasters

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?

community

3437

result

3629

41 comments

143 forecasters

Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?

resultYes

9 comments

39 forecasters

Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?

resultNo

55 comments

32 forecasters

Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?

resultNo