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US Democracy Index

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Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

15%chance

0 comments

88 forecasters

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low78.1%

Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%

High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

12 comments

215 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Current estimate

56.3M birds

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

32 comments

155 forecasters

How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?

Current estimate

46.8 Deaths

10 comments

17 forecasters

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

RSV3.48

Flu9.78

COVID-194.09

13 comments

18 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

6 comments

32 forecasters

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?

community

3437

result

3629

8 comments

15 forecasters

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

H1N151.9

H3N242.1

H5<0.1