Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?65% chance855 comments2020 forecasters65%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?10.5% chance199 comments6060 forecasters10.5%chance
Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?9.5% chance-166 comments9494 forecastersAnnulled
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35252 comments204204 forecasters1%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.7% chance51818 comments104104 forecasters0.7%chance
How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?39 cases (30 - 50)1111 comments1515 forecasters39 cases (30 - 50)
Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?result: yes274141 comments143143 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026?result: yes51717 comments763763 forecastersResolvedYes
Will CDC report at least one newly identified human infection with a novel influenza A virus in the United States before May 1, 2026?result: no121121 comments122122 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?result: no172323 comments102102 forecastersResolvedNo
Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?22.1% chance20 comments2929 forecasters22.1%chance
Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?2121 comments1919 forecasters
How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?104k (80.3k - 160k)377979 comments218218 forecasters104k (80.3k - 160k)
What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?376 (322 - 440)132121 comments6969 forecasters376 (322 - 440)
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?4419 (3821 - 5202)142626 comments7474 forecasters4419 (3821 - 5202)
Will WHO Disease Outbreak News publish a new mpox-related item before May 1, 2026?result: no108108 comments109109 forecastersResolvedNo
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters