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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will the 2026 suspected pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia result in 10 fatalities before 2027?

1% chance

5
1010 comments
37
37 forecasters
1%chance

What will be the first year when WHO reports zero MERS cases globally?

11 comment
2
2 forecasters

How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

5590 cases (4809 - 6599)

1
1616 comments
30
30 forecasters
5590 cases
(4809 - 6599)

How many locally acquired Chikungunya cases will be reported in the European Economic Area in 2026?

214 cases (190 - 262)

1
1414 comments
12
12 forecasters
214 cases
(190 - 262)

What proportion of influenza A will be H1N1 during the 2026/27 influenza season?

53.9% (35.5 - 77.1)

1
1010 comments
11
11 forecasters
53.9%
(35.5 - 77.1)

When will weekly new hospital admissions peak across respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?

04 Jan 2027 (22 Dec 2026 - 23 Jan 2027)

2
1111 comments
11
11 forecasters
04 Jan 2027
(22 Dec 2026 - 23 Jan 2027)

Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before July 2027?

7% chance

1
77 comments
16
16 forecasters
7%chance

What will be the maximum weekly new hospital admissions per 100,000 for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?

1
1111 comments
13
13 forecasters

How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?

>100 cases (90 - >100)

1717 comments
17
17 forecasters
>100 cases
(90 - >100)

Will the WHO declare an H5 virus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2028?

6% chance

1
77 comments
17
17 forecasters
6%chance

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

6% chance

5
1010 comments
59
59 forecasters
6%chance

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

1.8% chance

2
1212 comments
26
26 forecasters
1.8%chance

Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?

11 comment
3
3 forecasters

In the InfoGripe bulletin published on or immediately before June 25, 2026, which respiratory virus will be the single most prevalent among positive SRAG cases nationally over the most recent 4-week window?

11 comment
87
87 forecasters

Global Health Monitor update August 2026

0 comments

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

3131 comments
31
31 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

2626 comments
27
27 forecasters

Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?

result: no

3
5959 comments
221
221 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Announcing the Global Health Monitor 2026/27

4
0 comments

Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?

5% chance

1
1111 comments
64
64 forecasters
5%chance

Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026?

result: yes

5
1717 comments
763
763 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2040?

60% chance

11 comment
6
6 forecasters
60%chance