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Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 7 comments

24 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

34 comments

301 forecasters

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

113 comments

589 forecasters

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

resultNo

27 comments

225 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

22.8%chance

3 comments

15 forecasters

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

community

104

result

Annulled

4 comments

83 forecasters

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

resultNo

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.609

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.942

10 10 comments

21 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

12 comments

112 forecasters

Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?

resultNo

5 comments

152 forecasters

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Orthomyxoviridae58%

Other 24 known HIVF25%

Coronaviridae15%

This question is closed for forecasting.

46 comments

238 forecasters

Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.