Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?80% chance70 comments2929 forecasters80%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22.8% chance332727 comments228228 forecasters22.8%chance
Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?12% chance311 comment2323 forecasters12%chance
When will the first medical treatment based on nanorobots happen?Oct 2031 (27 Jan 2029 - Jun 2035)988 comments1313 forecastersOct 2031 (27 Jan 2029 - Jun 2035)
Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?53% chance344 comments2020 forecasters53%chance
When will Altos Labs first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans?09 Aug 2030 (29 Jul 2028 - Aug 2033)1233 comments2020 forecasters09 Aug 2030 (29 Jul 2028 - Aug 2033)
Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?49% chance622 comments3434 forecasters49%chance
From Reduction to Elimination: Replicating the Successes of Historical Tuberculosis Control50 comments