When will Altos Labs first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans?20 Aug 2030 (14 Jul 2028 - Nov 2033)1233 comments2020 forecasters20 Aug 2030 (14 Jul 2028 - Nov 2033)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters22%chance
Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?12% chance311 comment2424 forecasters12%chance
When will the first medical treatment based on nanorobots happen?Oct 2031 (27 Jan 2029 - Jun 2035)988 comments1313 forecastersOct 2031 (27 Jan 2029 - Jun 2035)
Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?61.7% chance344 comments2121 forecasters61.7%chance
Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?60% chance622 comments3434 forecasters60%chance
Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?80% chance70 comments2929 forecasters80%chance
From Reduction to Elimination: Replicating the Successes of Historical Tuberculosis Control50 comments