Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?53% chance10 comments2929 forecasters53%chance
When will epigenome editing be used in human embryos as a therapeutic approach for genetic diseases?Oct 2034 (02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)211 comment55 forecastersOct 2034 (02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)
Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?25% chance12121 comments767767 forecasters25%chance
Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2030?33% chance423636 comments157157 forecasters33%chance
Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?18% chance522 comments1414 forecasters18%chance
Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?result: no1466 comments118118 forecastersResolvedNo
Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?result: no2188 comments149149 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?61.7% chance344 comments2121 forecasters61.7%chance
At last? Clinical trials of a vaccine for the common cold?result: no1144 comments5050 forecastersResolvedNo
New ultrasound Alzheimer's treatment to clinical trial in humans by end of 2017?result: no1011 comment4545 forecastersResolvedNo
Funding for a study of anti-aging properties of the diabetes drug Metformin?result: no471414 comments130130 forecastersResolvedNo
Zapping Zika #5: Clinical trials of IFITM3-based therapies?result: no611 comment6161 forecastersResolvedNo
Will any (non-UK) European Union member state grant regulatory approval for clinical trials using human embryonic stem cells by the end of May?40% chance61010 comments5050 forecastersAmbiguous
From Reduction to Elimination: Replicating the Successes of Historical Tuberculosis Control50 comments