Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
How many problems solved by AI will the official FrontierMath Open Problems index show on May 1, 2026?119119 comments118118 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5151 forecasters
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?95% chance422 comments6969 forecasters95%chance
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111515 comments1717 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?70% chance66 comments2626 forecasters70%chance
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?result: yes104646 comments199199 forecastersResolvedYes
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?182424 comments9898 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?5% chance1099 comments8585 forecasters5%chance
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4141 forecasters
When will the first company with a market cap above the given figures be openly run by an AI CEO?433 comments2525 forecasters
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?1699 comments8181 forecasters
Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?result: no422 comments6262 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?85% chance544 comments5959 forecasters85%chance
*Closes Mar 31, 2026* Which company will own the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI (LMSYS) Text Leaderboard as of April 30, 2026?0 comments1010 forecasters
What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?47.1 (41.8 - 52.5)233 comments3333 forecasters47.1 (41.8 - 52.5)
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?30 Apr 2030 (04 Jan 2028 - Jun 2035)113838 comments112112 forecasters30 Apr 2030 (04 Jan 2028 - Jun 2035)