What will be the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?105105 comments109109 forecasters
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?10 comments1616 forecasters
What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?72.1 (63 - 78.3)10 comments1616 forecasters72.1 (63 - 78.3)
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?25 Jun 2028 (11 Nov 2026 - Mar 2032)223617617 comments1.7k1.7k forecasters25 Jun 2028 (11 Nov 2026 - Mar 2032)
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?722 comments5353 forecasters
Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?70% chance133 comments99 forecasters70%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?6% chance11010 comments1111 forecasters6%chance
When will the first AI model exceed 130 IQ for a test not in the training data set?30 Aug 2026 (26 May 2026 - 20 Dec 2026)1111 comments1212 forecasters30 Aug 2026 (26 May 2026 - 20 Dec 2026)
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?10% chance477 comments100100 forecasters10%chance
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?98% chance41414 comments184184 forecasters98%chance
When will commercially available robots be able to build a personal computer on their own?17 Apr 2030 (04 Dec 2028 - Jul 2031)99 comments1919 forecasters17 Apr 2030 (04 Dec 2028 - Jul 2031)
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?85% chance544 comments5959 forecasters85%chance
When will concern about artificial intelligence go mainstream in the United States?10 Nov 2027 (23 Nov 2026 - 30 Apr 2029)1277 comments8181 forecasters10 Nov 2027 (23 Nov 2026 - 30 Apr 2029)
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?90% chance422 comments7070 forecasters90%chance
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5151 forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?Jan 2033 (18 Mar 2029 - Feb 2041)218654654 comments1.9k1.9k forecastersJan 2033 (18 Mar 2029 - Feb 2041)
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111515 comments1717 forecasters
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?result: yes104646 comments199199 forecastersResolvedYes
Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?result: no422 comments6262 forecastersResolvedNo