Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?5% chance33 comments11 forecaster5%chance
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?50% chance11 comment11 forecaster50%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?5% chance11 comment11 forecaster5%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance11 comment11 forecaster20%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45212212 comments316316 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?08 Sep 2027 (11 Sep 2026 - 29 Jan 2030)224669669 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters08 Sep 2027 (11 Sep 2026 - 29 Jan 2030)
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?75% chance22222 comments5252 forecasters75%chance
Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?28% chance11 comment1717 forecasters28%chance
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111818 comments1818 forecasters
Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?70% chance71616 comments4444 forecasters70%chance
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?90% chance755 comments6868 forecasters90%chance
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?21 Jan 2031 (16 Apr 2028 - Jul 2037)220669669 comments1.9k1.9k forecasters21 Jan 2031 (16 Apr 2028 - Jul 2037)
Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?49% chance22 comments1313 forecasters49%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?71% chance644 comments7575 forecasters71%chance
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.311 comment
How many of the 25 largest global companies will have a C-suite officer that specializes in AI, as of January 1, 2030?10 companies (5 - 18)55 comments1212 forecasters10 companies (5 - 18)
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?69% chance73131 comments142142 forecasters69%chance