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24
comments
80
forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
50%
chance
8%
this week
Key Factors
China's government support for robotics
Research labs are making big progress on video and autonomous learning
1X Neo robot prototype shows promising capabilities
0
comments
32
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
29%
Google Cloud
20%
Microsoft Azure
14%
1 other
Contributed by the
AI Warning Signs
community.
2
comments
11
forecasters
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?
62.8%
chance
2
comments
40
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
25%
Amazon Web Services
5%
Microsoft Azure
5%
1 other
Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant
0
comments
15
comments
23
forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
Current estimate
61.6%
3
comments
61
forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet
34.6%
OpenAI
21.2%
Anthropic
18.2%
3 others
26%
8
comments
35
forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
7
comments
34
forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 1
42.6%
2 or 3
41.8%
4 or 5
10.6%
3 others
5%
60
comments
236
forecasters
Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?
64%
chance
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