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24 comments
80 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

50%chance
8% this week

Key Factors

0 comments
32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud20%
Microsoft Azure14%

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

2 comments
11 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%chance
2 comments
40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%

Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant

0 comments
15 comments
23 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

Current estimate
61.6%
3 comments
61 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet34.6%
OpenAI21.2%
Anthropic18.2%
8 comments
35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

7 comments
34 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

0 or 142.6%
2 or 341.8%
4 or 510.6%
60 comments
236 forecasters

Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?

64%chance