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Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?

14.9% chance

59

59 forecasters

14.9%chance

Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?

2

2 forecasters

%chance

How many of the 25 largest global companies will have a C-suite officer that specializes in AI, as of January 1, 2030?

13 companies (8 - 19)

11

11 forecasters

13 companies

(8 - 19)

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

30 Aug 2028 (14 Jan 2027 - May 2032)

224

628 628 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

30 Aug 2028

(14 Jan 2027 - May 2032)

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

85% chance

7

120

120 forecasters

85%chance

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

25% chance

6

82

82 forecasters

25%chance

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

6

6 forecasters

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

81% chance

38

240

240 forecasters

81%chance

Will the majority of global computing power be based on non-silicon hardware before the end of the 21st century?

1

1

1 forecaster

%chance

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - Jul 2032)

2

29

29 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - Jul 2032)

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?

18 Apr 2027 (02 Sep 2026 - 20 May 2028)

2

20

20 forecasters

18 Apr 2027

(02 Sep 2026 - 20 May 2028)

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

8

63

63 forecasters

Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.

4

Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

97% chance

23

23 forecasters

97%chance

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

9

14

14 forecasters

When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?

25 Jul 2028 (05 Jun 2027 - Aug 2035)

-2

13

13 forecasters

25 Jul 2028

(05 Jun 2027 - Aug 2035)

Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

65% chance

13

31

31 forecasters

65%chance

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

85% chance

-1

35

35 forecasters

85%chance

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

98% chance

33

177

177 forecasters

98%chance

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030 → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

4

18

18 forecasters