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Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

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AI Pathways Tournament

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

45%chance

43% this week

Key Factor

David Sacks opposes AI safety regulations

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?

37%chance

40.5% this week

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

35%chance

37.5% this week

Key Factor

Many robots (including humanoids) prices are already under 20000

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

15%chance

5% this week

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

30%chance

24% this week

condition

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

20%chance

15% this week

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

Key Factor

Key Factor

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

Key Factor

Key Factor

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

Key Factor

Key Factor

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

Key Factor

Key Factor

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?