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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

13

93

93 forecasters

Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?

2

1

1 forecaster

%chance

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

01 Sep 2027 (18 Sep 2026 - 16 Dec 2029)

224

676 676 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

01 Sep 2027

(18 Sep 2026 - 16 Dec 2029)

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

45

222 222 comments

331

331 forecasters

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum

3

Will ChatGPT-type chatbots disappear before 2100?

93% chance

2

14

14 forecasters

93%chance

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

31% chance

1

92

92 forecasters

31%chance

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

97% chance

257

194 194 comments

3k

3k forecasters

97%chance

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

4

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99.9% chance

39

420

420 forecasters

99.9%chance

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

120

120 forecasters

When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?

07 Aug 2031 (20 Dec 2029 - Dec 2034)

3

11

11 forecasters

07 Aug 2031

(20 Dec 2029 - Dec 2034)

What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?

12 % mentioning (4 - 26)

99

99 forecasters

12 % mentioning

(4 - 26)

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

10% chance

5

115

115 forecasters

10%chance

Will an open weight AI model achieve Mythos-level cyber capabilities before July 2027?

95% chance

45

45 forecasters

95%chance

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

68% chance

14

54

54 forecasters

68%chance

What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?

73.2 (70.1 - 77.9)

1

49

49 forecasters

73.2

(70.1 - 77.9)

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

57% chance

1

29

29 forecasters

57%chance

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

95% chance

39

255

255 forecasters

95%chance

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

4

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

78% chance

6

75

75 forecasters

78%chance