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Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

75% chance

37

237

237 forecasters

75%chance

Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

97% chance

17

17 forecasters

97%chance

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

98.2% chance

33

177

177 forecasters

98.2%chance

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

15 Oct 2028 (22 Jan 2027 - Aug 2032)

224

624 624 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

15 Oct 2028

(22 Jan 2027 - Aug 2032)

When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?

11

17

17 forecasters

Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.

4

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

1% chance

2

82

82 forecasters

1%chance

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

13

84

84 forecasters

When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?

11 Aug 2028 (23 Aug 2027 - May 2032)

-1

11

11 forecasters

11 Aug 2028

(23 Aug 2027 - May 2032)

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - 19 May 2030)

2

26

26 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - 19 May 2030)

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

22 Oct 2026 (22 Dec 2025 - 06 Jan 2028)

42

302

302 forecasters

22 Oct 2026

(22 Dec 2025 - 06 Jan 2028)

What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

95.9 (93 - 98)

5

744

744 forecasters

95.9

(93 - 98)

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

93% chance

5

49

49 forecasters

93%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

332

332 forecasters

30%chance

How many of the 25 largest global companies will have a C-suite officer that specializes in AI, as of January 1, 2030?

15 companies (7 - 21)

10

10 forecasters

15 companies

(7 - 21)

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

99% chance

24

145

145 forecasters

99%chance

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

13% chance

4

53

53 forecasters

13%chance

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

34.7 months (9.34 - 151)

41

348

348 forecasters

34.7 months

(9.34 - 151)

When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

05 May 2024 (30 Nov 2023 - 13 Jan 2025)

9

43

43 forecasters

05 May 2024

(30 Nov 2023 - 13 Jan 2025)

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

6

6 forecasters

Build Your Own Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes With Our Tutorial Video

8