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566 comments
1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
20 Nov 2027

Key Factors

3 comments
61 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet34.6%
OpenAI21.2%
Anthropic18.2%
7 comments
34 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

0 or 142.6%
2 or 341.8%
4 or 510.6%
15 comments
24 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

Current estimate
58.8%
0 comments
100 forecasters

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

60 comments
236 forecasters

Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?

64%chance

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
0 comments
AI Progress Essay Contest

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
14 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

20%chance
10% this week
9 comments
19 forecasters

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

Current estimate
20 Jul 2026

Key Factors

36 comments
65 forecasters

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%chance

Key Factors