Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
12 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
30%chance
20% this week
559 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
27 May 2027
12 comments
37 forecasters
Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?
64%chance
6% this week
26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week