Will the CPSC publish any computer-related recalls in July or August 2026?35% chance0 comments137137 forecasters35%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments279279 forecasters
When will commercially available robots be able to build a personal computer on their own?03 Sep 2030 (07 Mar 2029 - Dec 2032)99 comments2020 forecasters03 Sep 2030 (07 Mar 2029 - Dec 2032)
Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?20% chance569191 comments2k2k forecasters20%chance
If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?19% chance1066 comments5454 forecastersAmbiguous
What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?2.36% (0.519 - 29.2)844 comments4747 forecasters2.36% (0.519 - 29.2)