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AI IPO Windfall: Forecasting Funding by Cause Area

1

What global growth rate for 2026 will the IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook project?

3% (2.9 - 3.1)

226 226 comments

224

224 forecasters

Resolved3.1%

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

45

222 222 comments

331

331 forecasters

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

2

5

5 forecasters

The Market Pulse Challenge 26Q4 is Live!

4

Who will be the 2026 Time Person of the Year?

26

26 forecasters

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

31% chance

1

94

94 forecasters

31%chance

How many months behind the frontier will the best Chinese open-weights AI model be at the end of 2028?

8.32 months (6.63 - 10.4)

5

5 forecasters

8.32 months

(6.63 - 10.4)

Will US manufacturing output be higher in 2035 than in 2025, while US manufacturing employment is lower?

66% chance

6

6 forecasters

66%chance

What will the labor share of national income (%) be in the US in the following years?

2

47

47 forecasters

What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?

5

62

62 forecasters

What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on positive real GDP growth?

1

38

38 forecasters

How much will the occupational mix have changed in the following years, relative to November 2022?

33

33 forecasters

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026 with Kiko Llaneras!

8

What will the percent change in people employed as financial specialists in the US be relative to 2025?

2

46

46 forecasters

What will the percent change of the real hourly median wage of US employees be relative to 2025 in the following years?

2

34

34 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

90.2% chance

2

49

49 forecasters

90.2%chance

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

2079 (Dec 2038 - >2201)

12

40

40 forecasters

2079

(Dec 2038 - >2201)

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Dec 2067 (Aug 2042 - 2165)

25

115

115 forecasters

Dec 2067

(Aug 2042 - 2165)

What will the percent change of the hourly median wage of US financial specialists be relative to 2025 in the following years?

2

35

35 forecasters

What will the percent change of the hourly median wage of US designers be relative to 2025 in the following years?

2

32

32 forecasters