Question Feed | Metaculus

The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is Live!

4

Will the June 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number be greater than it was for May 2026?

48.5% chance

116

48.5%chance

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 Winners!

5

Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?

%chance

Will annualized U.S. consumption growth from 2030-2035 exceed 8% (with appropriate adjustments for quality changes, home production, and zero-cost goods and services)?

%chance

Will the U.S. employment-population ratio for ages 25-54 fall below 70% by 2035?

%chance

Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?

result: yes

43

238

ResolvedYes

How will the countries that participated in the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad rank in the 2026 IMO?

1

7

Will the June 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number be greater than it was for May 2026?

50% chance

5

50%chance

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

9

Will Australia enter a recession before 2026?

result: no

7

46

ResolvedNo

Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a higher valuation on January 1, 2027?

4

Will any U.S. state or EU member state restrict large-scale data center grid connections before September 2026?

35% chance

1

145

35%chance

What is Egypt’s annual inflation rate (year-over-year percent change) for the Urban Consumer Price Index (Urban CPI) for March 2026?

11.5% (9.65 - 13.4)

96

11.5%

(9.65 - 13.4)

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

11

49

What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?

3

41

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

53

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

56

Announcing the Winners of the RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge!

6

Market Pulse Challenge 26Q1: Winners and Some Surprising Results

4

Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?

4

93

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

7

51

Will the first official U.S. Census Bureau advance estimate for March 2026 show that seasonally adjusted U.S. retail and food services sales increased from February 2026?

result: yes

117

ResolvedYes

How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?

6

16