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7
comments
35
forecasters
Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?
22%
chance
23
comments
29
forecasters
What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?
UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%
result:
Yes
UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%
result:
No
UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%
result:
No
1 other
19
comments
96
forecasters
Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?
Threshold 2030: 30 economists & AI policy experts forecast AI's economic impact
5
1
1
comment
1
comment
5
forecasters
What will be the Trade Openness Index for the United States in the following years?
2040
32.3
2030
28.6
2025
22.7
1 other
4
comments
6
forecasters
How much will the U.S. government spend, as a percentage of GDP, in the following years?
condition
US Hyperinflation Before 2050
9
forecasters
if yes
if no
10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities
17%
17%
10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities
11%
11%
1
0
comments
9
9
forecasters
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
condition
Federal Reserve Adoption of NGDP Targeting
1
forecaster
if yes
if no
US unemployment after next market crash
5.76
US unemployment after next market crash
6.12
1
0
comments
1
1
forecaster
Two Theories of Inflation
25
10
10
comments
Beyond Benchmark Rates: How Modern Central Banks Tighten Monetary Policy
10
1
1
comment
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