Will annualized U.S. consumption growth from 2030-2035 exceed 8% (with appropriate adjustments for quality changes, home production, and zero-cost goods and services)?42.5% chance11 comment22 forecasters42.5%chance
Will the June 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number be greater than it was for May 2026?50% chance0 comments66 forecasters50%chance
What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?3.29 (3.14 - 3.44)222 comments3232 forecasters3.29 (3.14 - 3.44)
Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?711 comment2424 forecasters
What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months?68383 comments4646 forecasters
Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?41.8% (26.9 - 56.6)444 comments2828 forecasters41.8% (26.9 - 56.6)
What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates?73434 comments5050 forecasters
Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?22.1% chance20 comments2929 forecasters22.1%chance
What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?82323 comments2929 forecasters
Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?20% chance455 comments815815 forecasters20%chance
How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years?81313 comments3636 forecasters
What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years?455 comments4343 forecasters
What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters?21717 comments3030 forecasters
What percent of US GDP will come from manufacturing in the first half of 2028?9.55% (8.8 - 10.2)11 comment130130 forecasters9.55% (8.8 - 10.2)
Will the USD fraction of allocated global foreign exchange currencies be below 50% before the following years?877 comments4343 forecasters
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?62.7% (55.8 - 70.6)433 comments4545 forecasters62.7% (55.8 - 70.6)
Will the US dollar continuously remain >50% of global foreign currency exchange reserves through Q3 2028?75% chance855 comments391391 forecasters75%chance
What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years?477 comments3434 forecasters
Will the retail price of electricity in the US in 2030 be below 11 cents USD (2023 dollars)?16% chance155 comments2020 forecasters16%chance
What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?61717 comments3232 forecasters