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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will annualized U.S. per-capita consumption growth from 2030-2035 exceed 8% (with appropriate adjustments for quality changes, home production, and zero-cost goods and services)?

42.5% chance

11 comment
2
2 forecasters
42.5%chance

What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months?

3
3333 comments
21
21 forecasters

Will the June 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number be greater than it was for May 2026?

50% chance

0 comments
6
6 forecasters
50%chance

What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?

3
2929 comments
42
42 forecasters

Economist 2021 Series Announcement

8
1313 comments

What signed value, in billions of U.S. dollars, will the U.S. Census Bureau first report for the March 2026 advance international trade balance in goods?

-89.7 Billions of U.S. dollars (-107 - -72.7)

104104 comments
103
103 forecasters
-89.7 Billions of U.S. dollars
(-107 - -72.7)

What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?

8
2323 comments
29
29 forecasters

What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months?

6
8383 comments
46
46 forecasters

What will the percent change of the hourly median wage of US financial specialists be relative to 2025 in the following years?

1
44 comments
24
24 forecasters

What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years?

4
55 comments
44
44 forecasters

What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters?

2
1717 comments
30
30 forecasters

What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years?

6
1717 comments
27
27 forecasters

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

13% chance

2
77 comments
38
38 forecasters
13%chance

Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

20% chance

4
55 comments
815
815 forecasters
20%chance

Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?

33 comments
104
104 forecasters

What will the annual real GDP growth rate be in the eurozone in the following years?

4
66 comments
23
23 forecasters

What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?

-0.568 (-0.731 - -0.358)

1212 comments
37
37 forecasters
-0.568
(-0.731 - -0.358)

What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years?

4
77 comments
34
34 forecasters

What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years?

2
77 comments
22
22 forecasters

What percent of US GDP will come from manufacturing in the first half of 2028?

9.55% (8.8 - 10.2)

11 comment
130
130 forecasters
9.55%
(8.8 - 10.2)

Will the US dollar continuously remain >50% of global foreign currency exchange reserves through Q3 2028?

73.4% chance

8
55 comments
391
391 forecasters
73.4%chance

What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?

-4.31 (-6.21 - -2.84)

77 comments
34
34 forecasters
-4.31
(-6.21 - -2.84)

What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?

0.0613 (-0.925 - 1.18)

1
44 comments
33
33 forecasters
0.0613
(-0.925 - 1.18)

What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?

-2.14 (-3.59 - -0.396)

5
99 comments
42
42 forecasters
-2.14
(-3.59 - -0.396)