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The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is Live!

7

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

9

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

9

38

38 forecasters

Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?

6% chance

3

194

194 forecasters

6%chance

Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election?

6

39

39 forecasters

Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered "free and fair"?

85% chance

5

48

48 forecasters

85%chance

Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?

result: no

1

19

19 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

1

93

93 forecasters

Who will win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?

10

57

57 forecasters

Who will win the 2025 Chilean presidential election?

-1

99

99 forecasters

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

1

3

3 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

1

13

13 forecasters

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

2

94

94 forecasters

Will Calin Georgescu win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?

40% chance

30

30 forecasters

Annulled

Will Elena Lasconi win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?

42.4% chance

30

30 forecasters

Annulled

Fall 2020 Metaculus Moderator Election

11

2021 Spring Equinox Moderator Election

7

Community Trader Election

11

Casens Administratorship

9

Fall 2021 Moderator Election

14

Scott Alexander's 2022 Predictions

15

Spring 2022 Moderator Election

14

Fall 2022 Moderator Election [Vote Now!]

8

2024 Election Hub Update

20