What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?22 comments4242 forecasters
Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?366 comments105105 forecasters
Will the next U.S. President have a beard or mustache when elected?10% chance399 comments2222 forecasters10%chance
Will federal courts block the USPS mail-in ballot restrictions before Election Day?77% chance33 comments7171 forecasters77%chance
Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered "free and fair"?90% chance388 comments4545 forecasters90%chance
Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?11 comment9797 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.56 (7.35 - 7.74)20 comments142142 forecasters7.56 (7.35 - 7.74)
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?62584584 comments1.2k1.2k forecasters
Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?11% chance422 comments5353 forecasters11%chance
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?20% chance141313 comments431431 forecasters20%chance
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?5% chance11717 comments4242 forecasters5%chance
Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?144 comments33 forecasters
Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?11212 comments1313 forecasters
In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?0 comments105105 forecasters
Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?0 comments112112 forecasters
Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?20 comments105105 forecasters
Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?91616 comments3838 forecasters