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Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

40% chance

11

54

54 forecasters

40%chance

How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?

1.29 (0.996 - 1.64)

4

34

34 forecasters

Resolved1.381

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10% chance

35

294

294 forecasters

10%chance

Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?

35% chance

5

40

40 forecasters

35%chance

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

3

1

1 forecaster

China CO2 Emissions Reduction by 60% by 2030 → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

3

5

5 forecasters

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

2

5

5 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

0.1% chance

66

66 forecasters

0.1%chance

Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?

97% chance

3

39

39 forecasters

97%chance

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

30.2% chance

4

20

20 forecasters

30.2%chance

Will China's CO2 emissions peak before 2030?

80% chance

10

59

59 forecasters

80%chance

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

22% chance

4

45

45 forecasters

22%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

1% chance

7

198

198 forecasters

1%chance

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

22% chance

20

147

147 forecasters

22%chance

Will China reduce their carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030?

70% chance

34

287

287 forecasters

70%chance

New Metaculus EV and Cluster Question Ideas

2

Hi! I'm the new Nuclear Risk Community Shaper

20

The Colorado River and the Southwestern US Under Climate Change

10

Space Sector ‘Greenification’

10

Solar Power: Current Challenges, Encouraging Progress

12

Biodiversity, Keystone Species, and E.O. Wilson's Half Earth

5

The Climate Tipping Points Tournament

17