Will August 2026 be the warmest August on record, according to Copernicus?35% chance11 comment1111 forecasters35%chance
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?12% chance41313 comments4545 forecasters12%chance
Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?97% chance311 comment3939 forecasters97%chance
Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?40% chance1166 comments5454 forecasters40%chance
How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?1.29 (0.996 - 1.64)41313 comments3434 forecastersResolved1.381
Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?35% chance599 comments3939 forecasters35%chance
Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?344 comments11 forecaster
China CO2 Emissions Reduction by 60% by 2030 → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?311 comment55 forecasters
Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?211 comment55 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?0.1% chance22 comments6666 forecasters0.1%chance
Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?30% chance433 comments1818 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments197197 forecasters1%chance
Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?20% chance2088 comments146146 forecasters20%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance
Will China reduce their carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030?71% chance342222 comments287287 forecasters71%chance