Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before December 1, 2026?0 comments33 forecasters%chance
Will Russia disable global technology infrastructure including AI before 2050?1% chance11 comment44 forecasters1%chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035) → Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?155 comments1111 forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?60% chance121313 comments7474 forecasters60%chance
Will the United States support Argentine claims of sovereignty over the Malvinas/Falkland Islands before 2030?24% chance266 comments1515 forecasters24%chance
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?318383 comments168168 forecasters
What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101313 comments7171 forecasters
Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?18.7% chance388 comments3535 forecasters18.7%chance
When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?07 Sep 2030 (11 Jan 2028 - Sep 2035)41313 comments2424 forecasters07 Sep 2030 (11 Jan 2028 - Sep 2035)
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?1066 comments101101 forecasters
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?40 comments3535 forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?81616 comments1616 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?29.2% chance301515 comments285285 forecasters29.2%chance
Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?94040 comments2626 forecasters
Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state before 2031?19% chance21111 comments3030 forecasters19%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance
Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?511 comment3333 forecasters
At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?75% chance10 comments3636 forecasters75%chance