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US Democracy Index

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Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

6%chance

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

14%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

0 comments

4 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

34%chance

17% this week

12 comments

32 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam87%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan68%

6 comments

46 forecasters

If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?

Europe12.6

Russia10.7

United States9.88

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

28 comments

171 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

10%chance

9 comments

112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea2.5%

Saudi Arabia1.5%

Poland1%

40 comments

26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous

LatviaAmbiguous

LithuaniaAmbiguous