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Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations

13
2 comments2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21
12 comments12
Metaculus Journal Archives

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous
LatviaAmbiguous
LithuaniaAmbiguous
and 9 others

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%
Poland30%
Estonia30%
and 9 others

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting

21
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea4%
Saudi Arabia3%
Japan2%
and 6 others

Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

India50.5%
Israel40%
Russia10%