If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?83.5 ° (39.7 - 117)131616 comments4949 forecasters83.5 ° (39.7 - 117)
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?1177 comments3838 forecasters
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?123232 comments9595 forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?81616 comments1515 forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?48% chance111010 comments5858 forecasters48%chance
Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?94040 comments2626 forecasters
Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?164343 comments6969 forecasters
How many distinct NATO member states will formally request Article 4 consultations citing the 2026 Iran conflict before May 1, 2026?0 member states (0 - 2)111111 comments112112 forecastersResolved0 member states
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035) → Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?155 comments1010 forecasters
Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?27.9% chance111 comment1919 forecasters27.9%chance
When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?14 Oct 2030 (31 Jul 2028 - Dec 2035)41212 comments1717 forecasters14 Oct 2030 (31 Jul 2028 - Dec 2035)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?30% chance281515 comments285285 forecasters30%chance
Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?result: no-155 comments6767 forecastersResolvedNo
Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?40% chance51010 comments3737 forecasters40%chance
Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?12.5% chance1699 comments125125 forecasters12.5%chance
Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?result: no9999 comments9898 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Russia, India, and China hold a trilateral (three-way) meeting before September 1, 2026?10.2% chance44 comments1919 forecasters10.2%chance