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condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

2 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%
19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%
28%
11 comment
2
2 forecasters
0 comments
98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

28 comments
407 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%chance
5 comments
63 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

8%chance
6% this week
2 comments
11 forecasters

Will Russia, India, and China hold a trilateral (three-way) meeting before September 1, 2026?

55%chance
10% this week
0 comments

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

32 comments
95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled
LebanonAnnulled
Saudi ArabiaAnnulled
28 comments
171 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

11%chance
7 comments
6 forecasters

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

33.3%chance
11.7% this week
10 comments
34 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

30%chance
10% this week