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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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What will happen in the Russiaโ€“Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?

5
3333 comments
212
212 forecasters

Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty addressing territorial boundaries between the two nations before 2029?

42% chance

2
44 comments
17
17 forecasters
42%chance

Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?

11 comment
3
3 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

11
2121 comments
76
76 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

9
1010 comments
126
126 forecasters

Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

10
44 comments
43
43 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

31
8383 comments
167
167 forecasters

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

14
99 comments
314
314 forecasters

Will the United States support Argentine claims of sovereignty over the Malvinas/Falkland Islands before 2030?

10% chance

1
22 comments
10
10 forecasters
10%chance

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

3
1313 comments
34
34 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

8
1616 comments
15
15 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

40% chance

11
1111 comments
61
61 forecasters
40%chance

US is a NATO Member until 2029? โ†’ US-China war before 2035?

4
0 comments
37
37 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035) โ†’ Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1
11 comment
10
10 forecasters

When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?

15 May 2031 (27 Aug 2028 - Aug 2037)

4
1212 comments
19
19 forecasters
15 May 2031
(27 Aug 2028 - Aug 2037)

If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?

83.5 ยฐ (39.7 - 117)

13
1616 comments
49
49 forecasters
83.5 ยฐ
(39.7 - 117)

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21
1313 comments

Will Russia, India, and China hold a trilateral (three-way) meeting before September 1, 2026?

5% chance

44 comments
23
23 forecasters
5%chance

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026? โ†’ Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

11 comment
6
6 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

result: no

-1
55 comments
67
67 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035) โ†’ Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

1
55 comments
11
11 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

9
4040 comments
26
26 forecasters