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US Democracy Index

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By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

17.1%chance

17% this week

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

38%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

5 comments

80 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

4%chance

3% this week

Key Factors

12 comments

31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan70%

1 comment

26 forecasters

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

203530%

203010%

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

0 comments

28 forecasters

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

20351.5%

20301%