Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

40%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

9 comments

112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

43 comments

66 forecasters

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

United States55%

China35%

Israel10%

9 comments

310 forecasters

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Ukraine20%

Pakistan12%

Israel11%

7 comments

28 forecasters

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

33%chance

210 comments

230 forecasters

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Sudanresult: Yes

Niger67%

Haiti60%

57 comments

277 forecasters

Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?

5%chance

20 comments

76 forecasters

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

12%chance

Key Factors