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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

38%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Lithuania30%

Poland30%

United States30%

9 comments

310 forecasters

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Ukraine18%

Israel13%

Pakistan12%

condition

31 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

12 comments

34 forecasters

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

Pakistan0.329

China0.125

India0.0813

82 comments

162 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Syria80%

Haiti74%

Mali62.5%

23 comments

169 forecasters

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

1%chance

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?