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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

2 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

2 forecasters

82 comments

161 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Syria80%

Haiti74%

Mali62.5%

21 comments

73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States30%

Poland30%

Lithuania29%

57 comments

276 forecasters

Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?

5%chance

9 comments

310 forecasters

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Ukraine18%

Israel13%

Pakistan12%

1 comment

50 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

75%chance

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

210 comments

230 forecasters

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Sudanresult: Yes

Niger67%

Democratic Republic of Congo60%

5 comments

70 forecasters

Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?

Latest estimate

This question is closed for forecasting.