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US Democracy Index

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Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

8 comments

40 forecasters

Will Israel lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030?

0.1%chance

3 comments

59 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

2%chance

7 comments

28 forecasters

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

33%chance

29 comments

32 forecasters

What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?

community

120

result

118.88

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

Will Israel lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030?

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?

Forecast on critical questions on Taiwan 🇹🇼

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

Will Israel lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030?

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?

Forecast on critical questions on Taiwan 🇹🇼

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World