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7
comments
28
forecasters
Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?
33%
chance
8%
this week
9
comments
109
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
63%
Saudi Arabia
14%
South Korea
7%
7 others
21
comments
73
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2.5%
Japan
1%
6 others
3
comments
81
forecasters
Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?
9%
chance
10
comments
14
forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?
00
8
comments
40
forecasters
Will Israel lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030?
0.9%
chance
29
comments
32
forecasters
What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?
community
120
result
118.88
Forecast on critical questions on Taiwan 🇹🇼
11
1
1
comment
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World
10
10
10
comments
Metaculus Journal Archives
🌐 Forecast in the Global Pulse Tournament
16
10
10
comments
Global Pulse Tournament
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