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Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

18% this week

24 comments

93 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

10%chance

5% this week

Contributed by the Sudan Community community.

0 comments

3 forecasters

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

22%chance

53 comments

50 forecasters

Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?

Annulled

32 comments

95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled

LebanonAnnulled

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

21 comments

48 forecasters

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%

Estonia30%

Poland30%

17 comments

262 forecasters

Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?

Contestedresult: Yes

Israel1%

Hamas0.5%

55 comments

66 forecasters

How many civilian deaths will there be in the Israel-Gaza conflict before July 1, 2024?

Palestinian civilians48.1k

Israeli civilians1418

This question is closed for forecasting.

20 comments

76 forecasters

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

12%chance