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US Democracy Index

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What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

1915 deaths

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

12 comments

93 forecasters

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?

3%chance

Key Factors

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

100 forecasters

Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

27 comments

102 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

14%chance

Key Factors

378 comments

885 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

40%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters