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5
comments
63
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
8%
chance
6%
this week
0
comments
11
forecasters
Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?
52%
chance
10%
this week
28
comments
407
forecasters
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
10%
chance
9
comments
68
forecasters
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?
10%
chance
28
comments
171
forecasters
Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?
11%
chance
32
comments
95
forecasters
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?
Iran
Annulled
Lebanon
Annulled
Saudi Arabia
Annulled
9 others
24
comments
135
forecasters
Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?
result
No
5
comments
37
forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30%
chance
27
comments
101
forecasters
Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
15%
chance
21
comments
48
forecasters
Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?
result
Yes
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