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0
comments
107
forecasters
Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?
7%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
15
forecasters
Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?
66.7%
chance
14.7%
this week
11
comments
77
forecasters
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?
4.7%
chance
4.3%
this week
Key Factors
Ceasefire and Diplomatic Engagement
Trump to oversee peace deal at ASEAN summit
Domestic Political Pressures and Nationalism
5
comments
73
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
3%
chance
4%
this week
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
33
comments
264
forecasters
Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?
result
No
10
comments
14
forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?
00
28
comments
169
forecasters
Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?
11%
chance
32
comments
95
forecasters
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?
Iran
Annulled
Lebanon
Annulled
Saudi Arabia
Annulled
9 others
15
comments
282
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
29%
chance
28
comments
413
forecasters
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
13.5%
chance
3.5%
this week
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