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Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

15% this week

24 comments

93 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

10%chance

5% this week

32 comments

95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled

LebanonAnnulled

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

condition

31 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

21 comments

48 forecasters

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%

Estonia30%

Poland30%

27 comments

168 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

10%chance

53 comments

261 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

4%chance

7 comments

28 forecasters

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

33%chance

8% this week

24 comments

135 forecasters

Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?