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US Democracy Index

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Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

83 comments

115 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

75 comments

141 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate

>125 billion $

2 comments

59 forecasters

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

SpaceX65%

NASA25%

CNSA15%

43 comments

66 forecasters

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

United States55%

China35%

Israel10%

4 comments

9 forecasters

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

Current estimate

60.6%

10 comments

28 forecasters

What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?

Current estimate

0.00112%

5 comments

8 forecasters

How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?

2 comments

30 forecasters

What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?

2 comments

27 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?

How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?

What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?

What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?

How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?

What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?

What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?