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83
comments
626
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
83
comments
115
forecasters
When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?
00
75
comments
141
forecasters
What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?
Current estimate
>125 billion $
1
comment
25
forecasters
What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?
Conventional
90.2%
Air-breathing
2.1%
Thermal rockets
1.2%
6 others
6%
2
comments
59
forecasters
Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?
SpaceX
65%
NASA
25%
CNSA
15%
2 others
2
comments
27
forecasters
What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?
10
comments
28
forecasters
What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?
Current estimate
0.00115%
11
comments
21
forecasters
How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?
4
comments
23
forecasters
When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?
Current estimate
Nov 2030
5
comments
30
forecasters
In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?
Current estimate
Jan 2068
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