What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?>125 billion $ (>125 - >125)147575 comments145145 forecasters>125 billion $ (>125 - >125)
What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?522 comments3434 forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?40% chance858484 comments645645 forecasters40%chance
Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?1% chance291616 comments200200 forecasters1%chance
What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?1011 comment2626 forecasters
In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?May 2069 (Nov 2040 - >2100)455 comments3333 forecastersMay 2069 (Nov 2040 - >2100)
What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?799 comments3636 forecasters
When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?Aug 2031 (10 Jan 2028 - Feb 2040)844 comments2323 forecastersAug 2031 (10 Jan 2028 - Feb 2040)
To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?result: no381616 comments170170 forecastersResolvedNo
By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?3.3% chance1199 comments5050 forecasters3.3%chance
How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?655 comments99 forecasters
Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?164343 comments6868 forecasters
What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?57.2% (23.4 - 82.6)244 comments1111 forecasters57.2% (23.4 - 82.6)
When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?15 Nov 2020 (17 Oct 2020 - 22 Dec 2020)74444 comments4141 forecasters15 Nov 2020 (17 Oct 2020 - 22 Dec 2020)
What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?<0.001% (<0.001 - 0.00156)61010 comments3030 forecasters<0.001% (<0.001 - 0.00156)
To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?result: no271414 comments132132 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?48% chance211818 comments168168 forecasters48%chance