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28
comments
289
forecasters
Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?
20%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
7
comments
21
forecasters
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
56.7%
18
comments
76
forecasters
What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?
community
0.95
result
0.948
6
comments
54
forecasters
If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?
Ambiguous
77
comments
94
forecasters
If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?
Ambiguous
57
comments
792
forecasters
Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?
60%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.