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A Global Catastrophe This Century
24
2
2
comments
Metaculus Journal Archives
Contributed by the
Brown University Forecasting Team
community.
0
comments
10
forecasters
How many students will pre-register for the MWF 9am-9:50am APMA 1650: Statistical Inference I section with Sarah Brauner by the end of pre-registration (5pm, 11/19)?
community
211
result
210
New: make continuous predictions with your keyboard!
14
26
26
comments
Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?
12
13
13
comments
12
comments
18
forecasters
Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range
KBCs are the best
result:
Yes
KBCs are the best
Ambiguous
KBCs are the best
result:
No
Most useful forecastint tools/data sources
26
33
33
comments
Metaculus Meta
Predict 0.1%—99.9% With Decimal Forecasting
46
20
20
comments
Metaculus Meta
122
comments
174
forecasters
Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?
result
Yes
Using monthly vs yearly data for estimates
1
1
comment
11
comments
62
forecasters
A posteriori statistics and five for seven or better on stock dips?
result
No
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