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A Global Catastrophe This Century

24
22 comments
Metaculus Journal Archives

Contributed by the Brown University Forecasting Team community.

0 comments
10 forecasters

How many students will pre-register for the MWF 9am-9:50am APMA 1650: Statistical Inference I section with Sarah Brauner by the end of pre-registration (5pm, 11/19)?

community
211
result
210

New: make continuous predictions with your keyboard!

14
2626 comments

Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?

12
1313 comments
12 comments
18 forecasters

Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range

KBCs are the bestresult: Yes
KBCs are the bestAmbiguous
KBCs are the bestresult: No

Most useful forecastint tools/data sources

26
3333 comments
Metaculus Meta

Predict 0.1%—99.9% With Decimal Forecasting

46
2020 comments
Metaculus Meta
122 comments
174 forecasters

Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?

resultYes

Using monthly vs yearly data for estimates

11 comment
11 comments
62 forecasters

A posteriori statistics and five for seven or better on stock dips?

resultNo