How many of Peru's 25 regions will show no gubernatorial ticket at 30%+ of valid votes in ONPE's official count as of October 15, 2026?14 regions (11 - 15)231231 comments233233 forecastersResolved15 regions
Will anyone besides Gianni Infantino have publicly declared a candidacy for the 2027 FIFA presidency as of October 15, 2026?result: yes246246 comments246246 forecastersResolvedYes
Will MSCI's non-operating company consultation results identify Strategy (MSTR) as a company to be made ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes?result: yes237237 comments236236 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the number of ERM 2026 candidate homicides reported in Peru exceed two by October 15, 2026?result: no231231 comments234234 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?50% chance111 comment33 forecasters50%chance
Will a new Clay Millennium Prize be awarded entirely to individual humans before 2040?0.1% chance122 comments44 forecasters0.1%chance
Will the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season's accumulated cyclone energy exceed 350 units as of October 29, 2026?55% chance0 comments329329 forecasters55%chance
Will the Supreme Court of India order a halt to the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls before October 30, 2026?13% chance0 comments311311 forecasters13%chance
Will five of the 25 best-known political figures of each party claim that fraud or other illegal conduct affected the 2026 midterms?211 comment2727 forecasters
What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on October 15, 2026?8.8% (8.5 - 9.4)22 comments2121 forecastersResolved8.9%
Will the Trump administration or a GOP state governor deploy armed officers or troops to a polling or early voting site in 2026?18% chance455 comments8484 forecasters18%chance
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?26 Aug 2027 (15 Sep 2026 - 12 Nov 2029)224682682 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters26 Aug 2027 (15 Sep 2026 - 12 Nov 2029)
What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on the eve of Election Day 2026?11 comment88 forecasters
How many seats will PP and Vox collectively receive in the 2026 Spanish general election?22 comments3434 forecasters
What first round vote share will José Maria Neves win in the 2026 Cape Verdean presidential election?11 comment3838 forecasters
What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on the eve of Election Day 2026?0 comments88 forecasters