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102 forecasters

Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
102 forecasters

Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
100 forecasters

Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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100 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai)

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment
97 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?

Annulled
0 comments
97 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Google DeepMind)

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
89 forecasters

How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?

Latest estimate
33.4 users

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment
7 forecasters

Labour Party leadership election before 2027?

Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days
7 comments
28 forecasters

Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33Upcoming
Death Stranding 2: On the BeachUpcoming
Donkey Kong BananzaUpcoming

Key Factors