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1 1 comment

4 comments

1 forecaster

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 hours

0 comments

2 forecasters

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara24%

José Antonio Kast36%

Evelyn Matthei15%

0 comments

86 forecasters

Will the 2025 North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) be at least 110.0 units by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?

63.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

87 forecasters

Will Mikie Sherrill be officially certified as the winner of New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial election by December 31, 2025?

97%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face)

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.