Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?70% chance855 comments1919 forecasters70%chance
Will the June 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number be greater than it was for May 2026?48.5% chance0 comments116116 forecasters48.5%chance
Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?31.5% chance0 comments111111 forecasters31.5%chance
What will be the voter turnout in the 2026 Algerian National People's Assembly elections?24.6% (19.6 - 30.3)0 comments9292 forecasters24.6% (19.6 - 30.3)
Will Wes Streeting formally submit nominations to trigger a Labour leadership contest before September 2026?36.5% chance0 comments9696 forecasters36.5%chance
Will Reform UK win the Makerfield parliamentary by-election on June 18, 2026?35% chance0 comments110110 forecasters35%chance
What percentage of the vote will Reform UK receive in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election on 18 June 2026?41.2% (37 - 45.5)0 comments103103 forecasters41.2% (37 - 45.5)
Will Minnesota’s prediction-market ban be blocked by a federal court order on August 1, 2026?69% chance0 comments5454 forecasters69%chance
What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)20.7 pp (17.2 - 27.7)0 comments9999 forecasters20.7 pp (17.2 - 27.7)
What share of Armenia’s National Assembly seats will Civil Contract win in the June 2026 parliamentary election?0 comments101101 forecasters
How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)0.631 pp (-5.85 - 7.29)0 comments9494 forecasters0.631 pp (-5.85 - 7.29)
How many U.S. Supreme Court Justices will vote in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?0 comments9494 forecasters
Will Instructure be subject to another major hack before September 1, 2026?25% chance0 comments9393 forecasters25%chance
How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)0.433 pp (-0.905 - 1.8)0 comments9090 forecasters0.433 pp (-0.905 - 1.8)
How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)-0.0451 pp (-3.06 - 2.8)0 comments9191 forecasters-0.0451 pp (-3.06 - 2.8)
In 2029, will a single AI training run consume as much electricity in a month as a city of 100,000 people?33 comments1010 forecasters
What will be the voter turnout in the 2026 Algerian National People's Assembly elections?27.8% (24 - 32.2)255 comments6161 forecasters27.8% (24 - 32.2)
Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?62.5% chance11 comment22 forecasters62.5%chance
Will the average monthly price per kWh of electricity in the U.S. break $0.40 before the end of 2030 (doubling recent values)?32.5% chance11 comment22 forecasters32.5%chance
Will Sergio Fajardo publicly endorse a candidate in Colombia's 2026 presidential runoff before June 14, 2026?15% chance0 comments9494 forecasters15%chance
Will a Colombian presidential candidate or campaign staffer be killed in a politically motivated attack between June 1 and June 13, 2026?20% chance0 comments9999 forecasters20%chance