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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?

result: no

8
1818 comments
124
124 forecasters
ResolvedNo

To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?

result: no

83
2424 comments
301
301 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

51% chance

6
55 comments
19
19 forecasters
51%chance

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

1% chance

11
1515 comments
129
129 forecasters
1%chance

Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?

99% chance

11
99 comments
95
95 forecasters
99%chance

Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?

36% chance

8
1010 comments
39
39 forecasters
36%chance

To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?

result: no

27
1414 comments
132
132 forecasters
ResolvedNo

New Solar Cycle 25 Question Series

4
22 comments

Discussion page for the Fermi Paradox question series

13
22 comments

Life on the Icy Moons and Ocean Worlds of the Outer Solar System

15
11 comment

The สปOumuamua Paradox and the Nature of Interstellar Objects

12
22 comments

Action Ontologies, Computer Ontologies

19
11 comment

Spacecraft Launchers and the Launcher Market

12
0 comments

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

8
11 comment

The Future of Human Spaceflight

10
0 comments

Announcing the Sagan Space Tournament

19
1313 comments

Forecasting the Evolution of the Space Debris Population

9
0 comments

Our Life Underneath a Chaotic Orbital Environment: The Relationship Between Space Debris and Space Utilization

11
0 comments

The Global Push to Return to the Moon: Predicting the Lunar Landings and Trends of the 2020s

10
0 comments

Private Citizen Space Travel: Participation, Place, and Price

8
0 comments

Sagan Space Commenting Prize Winners

7
55 comments

Take the Research Impact Challenge

0 comments