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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
17 comments
148 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

9%chance
0 comments
101 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
28 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

3%chance
2% this week
3 comments
27 forecasters

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

17.5%chance
9.2% this week
2 comments
52 forecasters

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

resultNo
9 comments
111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
8 comments
83 forecasters

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?

2%chance

Key Factors

18 comments
214 forecasters

Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?

resultNo
21 comments
74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%
Saudi Arabia2%
Japan1%
5 comments
66 forecasters

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

20%chance
4% this week