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21
comments
89
forecasters
Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?
result
No
0
comments
49
forecasters
Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?
5%
chance
5%
this week
47
comments
334
forecasters
Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?
25%
chance
39
comments
76
forecasters
When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?
Current estimate
Oct 2046
10
comments
95
forecasters
When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?
Current estimate
Apr 2052
23
comments
153
forecasters
When will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world's primary energy?
Current estimate
2077
21
comments
73
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2.5%
Japan
1%
6 others
9
comments
109
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
64%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
7%
7 others
11
comments
18
forecasters
When will Australia commission its first nuclear-powered submarine?
Current estimate
Mar 2040
46
comments
149
forecasters
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
Current estimate
1.1 weapons
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