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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

8 comments

71 forecasters

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?

2%chance

10 comments

34 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

30%chance

10% this week

6 comments

24 forecasters

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

56%chance

6% this week

4 comments

72 forecasters

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

3%chance

2% this week

30 comments

89 forecasters

Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?

resultNo

0 comments

63 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

5%chance

2% this week

21 comments

73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

4 comments

67 forecasters

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

16%chance

11 comments

87 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?