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5 comments
19 forecasters

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Current estimate
Sep 2035
17 comments
97 forecasters

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

60%chance
7 comments
32 forecasters

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

00
18 comments
42 forecasters

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Current estimate
Nov 2043
30 comments
42 forecasters

Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

5%chance
9 comments
6 forecasters

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

15 comments
128 forecasters

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

1%chance
6 comments
68 forecasters

Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?

1%chance
5 comments
69 forecasters

Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?

11.7%chance
3 comments
35 forecasters

More attention to potential evidence for a fifth fundamental force?

resultNo