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Will any non-superconducting quantum processor demonstrate below-threshold error correction before January 1, 2029?

3

3 forecasters

%chance

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

13

32

32 forecasters

What will be the mass in eV of the next fundamental particle to be discovered?

2.56T eV (<100B - 417T)

8

26

26 forecasters

2.56T eV

(<100B - 417T)

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

50% chance

6

19

19 forecasters

50%chance

Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?

67% chance

9

40

40 forecasters

67%chance

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

4

7

7 forecasters

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

64.7% chance

10

101

101 forecasters

64.7%chance

What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

3

7

7 forecasters

Will Google make a "watershed" announcement about quantum computing in early December?

result: no

7

2

2 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Seeing single photons: more research to come?

result: yes

7

28

28 forecasters

ResolvedYes

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Jul 2047 (Apr 2036 - Apr 2059)

19

42

42 forecasters

Jul 2047

(Apr 2036 - Apr 2059)

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

7.03M qubits (201k - 60.5M)

4

7

7 forecasters

7.03M qubits

(201k - 60.5M)

More attention to potential evidence for a fifth fundamental force?

result: no

4

35

35 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Do we live in a false vacuum?

50% chance

11

32

32 forecasters

50%chance

Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?

result: no

24

110

110 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

5% chance

2

44

44 forecasters

5%chance

Can quantum gravity be interestingly constrained using tabletop experiments?

result: no

10

57

57 forecasters

ResolvedNo

How much impact of quantum experiment exhibiting "exotic looped trajectories" of light?

8.3 (5.92 - 13.6)

4

33

33 forecasters

8.3

(5.92 - 13.6)

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Aug 2033 (02 May 2030 - Mar 2041)

8

21

21 forecasters

Aug 2033

(02 May 2030 - Mar 2041)

Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?

12% chance

8

50

50 forecasters

12%chance

In what year will a physical object be teleported?

>2717 (2461 - >2717)

13

14

14 forecasters

>2717

(2461 - >2717)

PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics

32.7 (22.4 - 45.1)

4

57

57 forecasters

32.7

(22.4 - 45.1)

Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?

12% chance

14

70

70 forecasters

12%chance

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

1% chance

11

129

129 forecasters

1%chance