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5
comments
19
forecasters
When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?
Current estimate
Sep 2035
17
comments
97
forecasters
Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?
60%
chance
7
comments
32
forecasters
When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?
00
18
comments
42
forecasters
When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?
Current estimate
Nov 2043
30
comments
42
forecasters
Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?
5%
chance
9
comments
6
forecasters
What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?
15
comments
128
forecasters
Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?
1%
chance
6
comments
68
forecasters
Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?
1%
chance
5
comments
69
forecasters
Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?
11.7%
chance
3
comments
35
forecasters
More attention to potential evidence for a fifth fundamental force?
result
No
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