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Which quantum pure-play stock will post the highest weekly gain from Aug 28 to Sep 4, 2026: IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, or Quantum Computing Inc.?

145 145 comments

145

145 forecasters

Will a fault-tolerant quantum computer be available to commercial users before January 1, 2030?

40% chance

12

12 forecasters

40%chance

Which organization will first factor a 2048-bit RSA modulus?

1

6

6 forecasters

Will the majority of global computing power be based on non-silicon hardware before the end of the 21st century?

65% chance

1

9

9 forecasters

65%chance

Conditional on a Room-Temperature Superconductor Being Discovered Before 2100, Will Quantum Computing Be a Major Enabling Factor?

35% chance

6

6 forecasters

35%chance

When will a logical qubit with per–QEC‑cycle error rate < 10⁻⁶ be demonstrated?

Mar 2036 (24 Aug 2029 - Dec 2043)

1

3

3 forecasters

Mar 2036

(24 Aug 2029 - Dec 2043)

When will a logical-level CNOT be demonstrated with error < 10⁻⁶ per gate?

Mar 2035 (31 May 2031 - Feb 2039)

1

3

3 forecasters

Mar 2035

(31 May 2031 - Feb 2039)

Which quantum hardware substrate will first factor a 2048-bit RSA modulus?

1

3

3 forecasters

When will a quantum-computing system with 1000 highly accurate logical qubits be demonstrated?

Mar 2036 (31 Jul 2030 - Aug 2047)

6

6 forecasters

Mar 2036

(31 Jul 2030 - Aug 2047)

Which country will be first to factor the 2048-bit RSA challenge number?

5

5 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?

8% chance

7

52

52 forecasters

8%chance

When will a quantum-computing system with 100 accurate logical qubits be demonstrated?

Mar 2033 (07 Jun 2029 - Aug 2040)

5

5 forecasters

Mar 2033

(07 Jun 2029 - Aug 2040)

Will any non-superconducting quantum processor demonstrate below-threshold error correction before January 1, 2029?

80% chance

1

3

3 forecasters

80%chance

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Sep 2033 (10 Jun 2030 - Feb 2039)

8

26

26 forecasters

Sep 2033

(10 Jun 2030 - Feb 2039)

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

4

7

7 forecasters

Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?

result: no

24

110

110 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

5% chance

2

43

43 forecasters

5%chance

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

7.03M qubits (201k - 60.5M)

4

7

7 forecasters

7.03M qubits

(201k - 60.5M)

In what year will a physical object be teleported?

>2717 (2461 - >2717)

13

14

14 forecasters

>2717

(2461 - >2717)

Do we live in a false vacuum?

50% chance

11

31

31 forecasters

50%chance

What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

3

7

7 forecasters

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

13

32

32 forecasters