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When will a quantum-computing system with 1000 highly accurate logical qubits be demonstrated?

Jul 2033 (11 Sep 2029 - Nov 2051)

4

4 forecasters

Jul 2033

(11 Sep 2029 - Nov 2051)

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

4

7

7 forecasters

Which country will be first to factor the 2048-bit RSA challenge number?

4

4 forecasters

Conditional on a Room-Temperature Superconductor Being Discovered Before 2100, Will Quantum Computing Be a Major Enabling Factor?

40% chance

3

3 forecasters

40%chance

When will a logical qubit with per–QEC‑cycle error rate < 10⁻⁶ be demonstrated?

13 Jul 2030 (23 Mar 2028 - Dec 2033)

2

2 forecasters

13 Jul 2030

(23 Mar 2028 - Dec 2033)

When will a logical-level CNOT be demonstrated with error < 10⁻⁶ per gate?

Jul 2032 (22 Aug 2029 - Sep 2036)

2

2 forecasters

Jul 2032

(22 Aug 2029 - Sep 2036)

Which quantum hardware substrate will first factor a 2048-bit RSA modulus?

2

2 forecasters

Which organization will first factor a 2048-bit RSA modulus?

1

5

5 forecasters

When will a quantum-computing system with 100 accurate logical qubits be demonstrated?

Jul 2034 (01 Dec 2028 - Aug 2043)

3

3 forecasters

Jul 2034

(01 Dec 2028 - Aug 2043)

Will any non-superconducting quantum processor demonstrate below-threshold error correction before January 1, 2029?

70.5% chance

1

2

2 forecasters

70.5%chance

Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?

12% chance

7

51

51 forecasters

12%chance

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

15% chance

6

17

17 forecasters

15%chance

Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

5% chance

2

43

43 forecasters

5%chance

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

65% chance

10

99

99 forecasters

65%chance

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

7.03M qubits (201k - 60.5M)

4

7

7 forecasters

7.03M qubits

(201k - 60.5M)

What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

3

7

7 forecasters

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Apr 2034 (20 Sep 2030 - Mar 2040)

8

24

24 forecasters

Apr 2034

(20 Sep 2030 - Mar 2040)

In what year will a physical object be teleported?

>2717 (2461 - >2717)

13

14

14 forecasters

>2717

(2461 - >2717)

Do we live in a false vacuum?

50% chance

11

31

31 forecasters

50%chance

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

13

32

32 forecasters

PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics

32.7 (22.4 - 45.1)

4

57

57 forecasters

Resolved19.42

Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?

73% chance

9

41

41 forecasters

73%chance