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4
comments
7
forecasters
What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?
Single-qubit relaxation time (T1) (μs)
375M
Coherence time (T2) (seconds)
442
2-qubit gate infidelity
1.66×10⁻⁴
5
comments
19
forecasters
When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?
Current estimate
Sep 2035
17
comments
97
forecasters
Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?
60%
chance
9
comments
6
forecasters
What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?
11
comments
31
forecasters
Do we live in a false vacuum?
50%
chance
7
comments
32
forecasters
When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?
00
30
comments
42
forecasters
Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?
5%
chance
3
comments
2
forecasters
Will Google make a "watershed" announcement about quantum computing in early December?
result
No
18
comments
42
forecasters
When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?
Current estimate
Sep 2045
4
comments
41
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?
14%
chance
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