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20
comments
65
forecasters
Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?
Angela Rayner
25%
Keir Starmer
23%
Andy Burnham
15.5%
6 others
1
comment
10
forecasters
Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?
80%
chance
67
comments
959
forecasters
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
0.3%
chance
2
comments
34
forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
ID
result:
No
4 others
7
comments
58
forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
10%
chance
25
comments
26
forecasters
Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission?
EPP + S&D + RE
Annulled
EPP + S&D + RE + G/EFA
Annulled
EPP + S&D + G/EFA
Annulled
3 others
3
comments
33
forecasters
Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
Renew
result:
No
4 others
27
comments
54
forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?
84%
chance
condition
War in Europe by 2153?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
Date EU Ceases to Exist?
2105
Date EU Ceases to Exist?
2145
3
0
comments
5
5
forecasters
condition
European Army before 2032?
2
forecasters
if yes
if no
Date EU Ceases to Exist?
2142
Date EU Ceases to Exist?
2142
2
0
comments
2
2
forecasters
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