Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?2% chance0 comments118118 forecasters2%chance
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?2% chance799 comments8383 forecasters2%chance
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?422 comments3434 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?88% chance52727 comments5858 forecasters88%chance
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?0.1% chance976767 comments986986 forecasters0.1%chance