7 comments
63 forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
7%chance
10 comments
65 forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?
2 comments
34 forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?
EPPresult: Yes
S&Dresult: No
IDresult: No
27 comments
54 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?
85%chance
25 comments
26 forecasters
Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission?
EPP + S&D + REAnnulled
EPP + S&D + RE + G/EFAAnnulled
EPP + S&D + G/EFAAnnulled
52 comments
93 forecasters
Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?
Montenegro96%
North Macedonia87.5%
Albania85%
67 comments
967 forecasters
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
0.1%chance