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Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

45%chance

10% this week

52 comments

93 forecasters

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

Montenegro96%

North Macedonia87.5%

Albania85%

10 comments

64 forecasters

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?

7 comments

58 forecasters

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

10%chance

67 comments

960 forecasters

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

0.3%chance

3 comments

33 forecasters

Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?

EPPresult: Yes

S&Dresult: No

Renewresult: No

2 comments

34 forecasters

Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?

EPPresult: Yes

S&Dresult: No

IDresult: No

27 comments

54 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

84%chance

11 comments

27 forecasters

How many seats will the Identity and Democracy (ID) party win in the 2024 European parliamentary elections?

community

70.7

result

Annulled

25 comments

26 forecasters

Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission?

EPP + S&D + REAnnulled

EPP + S&D + RE + G/EFAAnnulled

EPP + S&D + G/EFAAnnulled