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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
5 comments
77 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

3%chance
4% this week

Key Factors

2 comments
34 forecasters

Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?

EPPresult: Yes
S&Dresult: No
IDresult: No
7 comments
63 forecasters

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

7%chance
52 comments
93 forecasters

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

Montenegro96%
North Macedonia87.5%
Albania85%
5 comments
47 forecasters

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

51%chance
10 comments
66 forecasters

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?

condition

European Army before 2032?

2 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2185

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2142
2
0 comments
2
2 forecasters
11 comments
27 forecasters

How many seats will the Identity and Democracy (ID) party win in the 2024 European parliamentary elections?

community
70.7
result
Annulled
3 comments
33 forecasters

Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?

EPPresult: Yes
S&Dresult: No
Renewresult: No
27 comments
53 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

85%chance