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When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

8
1616 comments
15
15 forecasters

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

1% chance

12
2525 comments
102
102 forecasters
1%chance

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

5% chance

1
1717 comments
42
42 forecasters
5%chance

If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?

11
3030 comments
46
46 forecasters

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026 With Dylan Matthews!

11
3333 comments

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? โ†’ Second US Civil War Before 2031

1
11 comment
18
18 forecasters

What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?

78.5 points (66.6 - 89.5)

9
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
78.5 points
(66.6 - 89.5)

PhilPapers survey mini-series: Support for open borders

Ambiguous

5
33 comments
53
53 forecasters
Ambiguous

Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?

48 (43.5 - 52.6)

11
55 comments
70
70 forecasters
48
(43.5 - 52.6)

Which anonymous administration figure authored the NYT editorial?

8
2020 comments

Future Perfect 2020 Series

7
55 comments

Future Perfect 2021 Series

7
11 comment

Public Figures: New Figure Suggestions

34
183183 comments

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
33 comments

Vox Future Perfect Predictions for 2022

8
55 comments

Scott Alexander's 2022 Predictions

15
0 comments

A brief but hopeful vignette

4
11 comment

[New Questions] Autocrat Public Figure Series

12
33 comments

Forecasting Our World in Data 2023-2-9 Update

5
55 comments

Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey

0 comments

Metaculus on the election

0 comments

Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras

11
22 comments