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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

5% chance

1
2020 comments
43
43 forecasters
5%chance

Will the Cuban government lose power before 2027?

16% chance

2
1616 comments
43
43 forecasters
16%chance

Will the United States attack Colombia before 2027?

2.1% chance

4
55 comments
64
64 forecasters
2.1%chance

Will the United States attack Venezuela during 2026? โ†’ Will the USA invade Mexico and acknowledge that invasion before January 20, 2029?

11 comment
5
5 forecasters

Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?

0.5% chance

2
1111 comments
82
82 forecasters
0.5%chance

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

2% chance

25
6060 comments
321
321 forecasters
2%chance

Which anonymous administration figure authored the NYT editorial?

8
2020 comments

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
33 comments

Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras

11
22 comments